Primera A · Clausura - 14
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Atletico Nacional host Deportivo Pasto on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atletico Nacional 65%, draw 21%, Deportivo Pasto 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico Nacional €780K, Deportivo Pasto €297K.
- Primera A: J. Zapata is the highest-rated midfielder (1876).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Primera A): Atletico Nacional rank #22 of 22, Deportivo Pasto #4.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atletico Nacional goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Atletico Nacional 1807 · Deportivo Pasto 1590
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1850
Deportivo Pasto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1633
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico Nacional
1st in Primera A · 40 pts from 19
- 17 OctWChico Colombia Primera A1776
- 8 OctDDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1781
- 1 OctWJunior Colombia Primera A1757
- 25 SepDMillonarios Colombia Primera A1795
- 21 SepLLlaneros Colombia Primera A1788
Deportivo Pasto
3rd in Primera A · 34 pts from 19
- 4 OctDFortaleza FC Colombia Primera A1594
- 25 SepLChico Colombia Primera A1623
- 20 SepWOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1551
- 15 SepWAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1512
- 5 SepDCucuta Colombia Primera A1476
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 40 /19 | 53.2 | 98% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Deportivo Pasto | 34 /19 | 42.4 | 1% | 69% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico Nacional: creative · shot-heavy (how Lucas Fidolo González Vélez plays) · Deportivo Pasto: balanced profile (how Matías Jonathan Risueño Luján plays)