Primera A · Clausura - 9
Atletico Nacional 0–0 Deportes Tolima
Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 23:05 UTC · Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí, Itagui
Atletico NacionalTeam 1802Deportes TolimaTeam 1760We gave Atletico Nacional 51% to win: it ended in a draw.
Before kick-off (provisional): 51% · 27% · 23%(Atletico Nacional · draw · Deportes Tolima)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–0 had 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico Nacional €1.1M, Deportes Tolima €854K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico Nacional
1st in Primera A · 40 pts from 19
- 1 OctWJunior Colombia Primera A1757
- 25 SepDMillonarios Colombia Primera A1795
- 21 SepLLlaneros Colombia Primera A1788
- 17 SepWInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1763
- 13 SepWÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1844
Deportes Tolima
6th in Primera A · 31 pts from 19
- 3 OctDChico Colombia Primera A1746
- 27 SepDFortaleza FC Colombia Primera A1747
- 20 SepDAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1750
- 16 SepLOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1774
- 12 SepLSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1827
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 40 /19 | 56.7 | 96% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Deportes Tolima | 31 /19 | 41.6 | <1% | 31% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1865
Deportes Tolima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 1823
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico Nacional: creative · shot-heavy (how Lucas Fidolo González Vélez plays) · Deportes Tolima: possession-based (how Luis Fernando Suárez Guzman plays)