Serie A · Regular Season - 30
Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta
Atletico-MGTeam 1942SantosTeam 1953- Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza 90+1'
- Thiago Borbas 90+7'
- Gabriel Barbosa 88'
We gave Atletico-MG 47% to win: they did.
- 8'Luan Peres 1947 −7 for Willian Arão 1957 −7Santos:Luan Peres 1947 −7 for Willian Arão 1957 −7
- Alan Minda 1906 0* for Victor Hugo Gomes Silva 2097 +1245'Atletico-MG:Alan Minda 1906 0* for Victor Hugo Gomes Silva 2097 +12
- 45'Rony 1896 −3 for Benjamín Rollheiser 1938 −2Santos:Rony 1896 −3 for Benjamín Rollheiser 1938 −2
- Alan Franco 2158 −4*45+2'Atletico-MG:Alan Franco 2158 −4*
- 45+4'Lucas Veríssimo 1936 −6Santos:Lucas Veríssimo 1936 −6
- Thiago Borbas 1874 +4966'Atletico-MG:Thiago Borbas 1874 +49
- 66'Luan Peres 1947 −7Santos:Luan Peres 1947 −7
- Mamady Cisse 1851 +4 for Alan Franco 2158 −4*69'Atletico-MG:Mamady Cisse 1851 +4 for Alan Franco 2158 −4*
- Maycon de Andrade Barberan 2070 +1 for Kevin Castaño 2026 +2469'Atletico-MG:Maycon de Andrade Barberan 2070 +1 for Kevin Castaño 2026 +24
- Angelo Preciado 2065 −6* for Natanael Moreira Milouski 2169 +1470'Atletico-MG:Angelo Preciado 2065 −6* for Natanael Moreira Milouski 2169 +14
- Igor Gomes 1984 +1270'Atletico-MG:Igor Gomes 1984 +12
- 72'João Schmidt 1849 −13* for Gustavo Henrique 1789 0Santos:João Schmidt 1849 −13* for Gustavo Henrique 1789 0
- 72'Philippe Coutinho 1950 −8 for Gabriel Bontempo 1986 −4Santos:Philippe Coutinho 1950 −8 for Gabriel Bontempo 1986 −4
- Eduardo Pereira Rodrigues 1603 −11* for Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa 1976 +1282'Atletico-MG:Eduardo Pereira Rodrigues 1603 −11* for Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa 1976 +12
- 85'João Schmidt 1849 −13*Santos:João Schmidt 1849 −13*
- 85'Álvaro Barreal 1926 0 for Everton 2056 −10Santos:Álvaro Barreal 1926 0 for Everton 2056 −10
- 88'Gabriel Barbosa 2010 −21 assist Philippe Coutinho 1950 −8Santos:Gabriel Barbosa 2010 −21 assist Philippe Coutinho 1950 −8
- 89'Gabriel Barbosa 2010 −21Santos:Gabriel Barbosa 2010 −21
- 89'Willian Arão 1957 −7Santos:Willian Arão 1957 −7
- Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza 1872 +41 assist Maycon de Andrade Barberan 2070 +190+1'Atletico-MG:Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza 1872 +41 assist Maycon de Andrade Barberan 2070 +1
- Thiago Borbas 1874 +49 assist Alan Minda 1906 0*90+7'Atletico-MG:Thiago Borbas 1874 +49 assist Alan Minda 1906 0*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 47% · 28% · 25%(Atletico-MG · draw · Santos)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–1 had 9%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Atletico-MG €3.9M, Santos €2.7M.
- Atletico-MG were without 1 expected starter: T. Cuello (2145).
- Santos were without 1 expected starter: Arthur (1964).
- Atletico-MG were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico-MG
7th in Série A · 44 pts from 29
- 8 OctDAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A2031
- 3 OctWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2024
- 19 SepDChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1977
- 16 SepWSantos Copa Sudamericana2025
- 12 SepWFluminense Brazil Serie A1955
Santos
8th in Série A · 42 pts from 29
- 8 OctDFlamengo Brazil Serie A1962
- 2 OctWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1970
- 19 SepWRemo Brazil Serie A1926
- 16 SepLAtletico-MG Copa Sudamericana1952
- 13 SepWCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1930
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 44 /29 | 58.6 | 0% | 20% | 0% | 6th |
| Santos | 42 /29 | 54.3 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico-MG · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 2070
Santos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2031
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico-MG: possession-based (how Eduardo Rodrigo Domínguez plays) · Santos: balanced profile (how Alexi Stival plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.