Copa do Brasil · Semi-finals
Atletico-MG vs Gremio
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Atletico-MG host Gremio on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Copa do Brasil); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atletico-MG 52%, draw 26%, Gremio 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico-MG €3.7M, Gremio €1.9M.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Série A): Atletico-MG rank #20 of 20, Gremio #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atletico-MG goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Atletico-MG 1998 · Gremio 1909
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico-MG · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2062
Gremio · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1954
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico-MG
6th in Série A · 50 pts from 32
- 26 OctLFlamengo Brazil Serie A2048
- 21 OctLAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana2059
- 17 OctWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1946
- 14 OctWAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana2046
- 11 OctWSantos Brazil Serie A1978
Gremio
17th in Série A · 34 pts from 32
- 26 OctWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1906
- 18 OctLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1903
- 11 OctDInternacional Brazil Serie A1892
- 7 OctDRemo Brazil Serie A1884
- 20 SepDPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1907
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico-MG: possession-based (how E. Domínguez plays) · Gremio: dribble-heavy (how Renato Portaluppi plays)