Serie A · Regular Season - 33
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Atletico-MG host Cruzeiro on Thu 29 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atletico-MG 45%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico-MG €3.1M, Cruzeiro €4.8M.
- Home advantage makes Atletico-MG the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Cruzeiro's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 over 180 days.
- Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atletico-MG goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Atletico-MG 1993 · Cruzeiro 2025
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico-MG · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.7 (Good) · Elo 2080
Cruzeiro · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.0 (Elite) · Elo 2119
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico-MG
6th in Série A · 50 pts from 31
- 17 OctWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1946
- 14 OctWAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana2046
- 11 OctWSantos Brazil Serie A1978
- 8 OctDAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A2031
- 3 OctWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2024
Cruzeiro
4th in Série A · 51 pts from 31
- 18 OctWGremio Brazil Serie A2027
- 13 OctLRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2009
- 8 OctWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A2013
- 20 SepWVitoria Brazil Serie A1980
- 13 SepLSantos Brazil Serie A2023
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 50 /31 | 59.7 | 0% | 25% | 0% | 6th |
| Cruzeiro | 51 /31 | 62.7 | 0% | 58% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico-MG: possession-based (how Eduardo Rodrigo Domínguez plays) · Cruzeiro: balanced profile (how Artur Jorge Torres Gomes Araújo Amorim plays)