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Serie A · Regular Season - 31

Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta

Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MGTeam 1962
1–0
Full time
HT 0–0
Coritiba crestCoritibaTeam 1731

Match story

Atletico-MG · draw · Coritiba

Before kick-off: 67% · 20% · 13%

Live chances: Atletico-MG 100%, draw 0%, Coritiba 0% at 90+8'1' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 67%, draw 20%, Coritiba 13%2' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 66%, draw 21%, Coritiba 13%3' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 66%, draw 21%, Coritiba 13%4' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 66%, draw 21%, Coritiba 13%5' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 66%, draw 21%, Coritiba 13%6' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 66%, draw 21%, Coritiba 13%7' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 65%, draw 21%, Coritiba 13%8' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 65%, draw 21%, Coritiba 13%9' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 65%, draw 22%, Coritiba 13%10' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 65%, draw 22%, Coritiba 14%11' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 65%, draw 22%, Coritiba 14%12' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 64%, draw 22%, Coritiba 14%13' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 64%, draw 22%, Coritiba 14%14' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 64%, draw 22%, Coritiba 14%15' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 64%, draw 23%, Coritiba 14%16' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 63%, draw 23%, Coritiba 14%17' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 63%, draw 23%, Coritiba 14%18' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 63%, draw 23%, Coritiba 14%19' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 63%, draw 23%, Coritiba 14%20' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 62%, draw 24%, Coritiba 14%21' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 62%, draw 24%, Coritiba 14%22' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 62%, draw 24%, Coritiba 14%23' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 61%, draw 24%, Coritiba 14%24' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 61%, draw 24%, Coritiba 14%25' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 61%, draw 25%, Coritiba 15%26' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 61%, draw 25%, Coritiba 15%27' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 60%, draw 25%, Coritiba 15%28' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 60%, draw 25%, Coritiba 15%29' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 60%, draw 25%, Coritiba 15%30' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 60%, draw 26%, Coritiba 15%31' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 59%, draw 26%, Coritiba 15%32' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 59%, draw 26%, Coritiba 15%33' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 59%, draw 26%, Coritiba 15%34' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 58%, draw 27%, Coritiba 15%35' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 58%, draw 27%, Coritiba 15%36' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 58%, draw 27%, Coritiba 15%37' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 57%, draw 28%, Coritiba 15%38' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 57%, draw 28%, Coritiba 15%39' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 56%, draw 28%, Coritiba 15%40' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 56%, draw 29%, Coritiba 15%41' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 56%, draw 29%, Coritiba 15%42' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 55%, draw 29%, Coritiba 15%43' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 55%, draw 29%, Coritiba 16%44' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 55%, draw 30%, Coritiba 16%45' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 54%, draw 30%, Coritiba 16%45+1' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 54%, draw 31%, Coritiba 16%45+2' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 53%, draw 31%, Coritiba 16%45+3' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 53%, draw 31%, Coritiba 16%45+4' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 53%, draw 32%, Coritiba 16%HT · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 53%, draw 32%, Coritiba 16%47' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 52%, draw 32%, Coritiba 16%48' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 52%, draw 32%, Coritiba 16%49' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 51%, draw 33%, Coritiba 16%50' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 51%, draw 33%, Coritiba 16%51' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 50%, draw 34%, Coritiba 16%52' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 50%, draw 34%, Coritiba 16%53' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 49%, draw 35%, Coritiba 16%54' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 49%, draw 36%, Coritiba 16%55' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 48%, draw 36%, Coritiba 16%56' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 47%, draw 37%, Coritiba 16%57' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 83%, draw 14%, Coritiba 3%58' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 46%, draw 38%, Coritiba 16%59' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 45%, draw 39%, Coritiba 16%60' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 45%, draw 40%, Coritiba 16%61' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 44%, draw 40%, Coritiba 16%62' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 43%, draw 41%, Coritiba 15%63' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 43%, draw 42%, Coritiba 15%64' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 42%, draw 43%, Coritiba 15%65' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 41%, draw 43%, Coritiba 15%66' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 41%, draw 44%, Coritiba 15%67' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 40%, draw 45%, Coritiba 15%68' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 39%, draw 46%, Coritiba 15%69' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 38%, draw 47%, Coritiba 15%70' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 37%, draw 48%, Coritiba 15%71' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 37%, draw 49%, Coritiba 14%72' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 36%, draw 50%, Coritiba 14%73' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 35%, draw 51%, Coritiba 14%74' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 34%, draw 52%, Coritiba 14%75' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 33%, draw 53%, Coritiba 14%76' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 32%, draw 55%, Coritiba 13%77' · 0–0 · Atletico-MG 31%, draw 56%, Coritiba 13%78' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 87%, draw 12%, Coritiba 1%79' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 87%, draw 12%, Coritiba 1%80' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 88%, draw 11%, Coritiba 1%81' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 88%, draw 11%, Coritiba 1%82' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 88%, draw 11%, Coritiba 1%83' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 89%, draw 10%, Coritiba 1%84' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 89%, draw 10%, Coritiba 1%85' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 90%, draw 9%, Coritiba 1%86' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 90%, draw 9%, Coritiba 1%87' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 91%, draw 9%, Coritiba 1%88' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 92%, draw 8%, Coritiba 0%89' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 92%, draw 7%, Coritiba 0%90' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 93%, draw 7%, Coritiba 0%90+1' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 94%, draw 6%, Coritiba 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 95%, draw 5%, Coritiba 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 96%, draw 4%, Coritiba 0%90+4' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 97%, draw 3%, Coritiba 0%90+5' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 98%, draw 2%, Coritiba 0%90+6' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 99%, draw 1%, Coritiba 0%90+7' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 100%, draw 0%, Coritiba 0%90+8' · 1–0 · Atletico-MG 100%, draw 0%, Coritiba 0%

Last reading, 90+8': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Atletico-MG 67% to win: they did.

  1. 45'Atletico-MG:Reinier Jesus Carvalho 2017 +4 for Thiago Borbas 1886 +5
  2. 60'Coritiba:Rodrigo Rodrigues 1650 −10* for Paulo Roberto 1595 0
  3. 61'Coritiba:Breno Lopes 1865 −3 for Joaquin Lavega 1715 0
  4. 62'Coritiba:Tinga 1738 −5 for Fabricio Bustos 1928 −6
  5. 62'Atletico-MG:Kevin Castaño 2047 +5 for Tomás Pérez 1961 +16
  6. 62'Atletico-MG:Tomás Cuello 2150 +1 for Alan Minda 1913 +7
  7. 62'Atletico-MG:Renan Lodi 2202 0 for Kaua Pascini 1804 +9
  8. 74'Atletico-MG:Victor Hugo Gomes Silva 2107 +1 for Mamady Cisse 1861 +9
  9. 78'Atletico-MG:Igor Gomes 2009 +20 assist Natanael Moreira Milouski 2181 +11
  10. 79'Coritiba:Nicolas Fonseca 1858 −1 for Sebastián Gómez 1847 −5
  11. 79'Coritiba:Brian Ocampo 1649 −8* for Pedro Rocha 1813 −5
  12. 90+4'Coritiba:Bruno Melo 1806 −7

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GGabriel Delfim1811+33
DNatanael2181+11
DLéo Duarte2105+13
DVitor Hugo1886+20
DK. Pascini1804+9
MT. Pérez1961+16
MAlexsander1997+21
MIgor Gomes2009+20
MMamady Cisse1861+9
MA. Minda1913+7
FT. Borbas1886+5
CE. Domínguez2185+8
GPedro Luccas1823−5
DF. Bustos1928−6
DTiago Cóser1822−2
DJacy1829−8
DBruno Melo1806−7
MThiago Santos1535−10
MS. Gómez1847−5
MJ. Lavega17150
MJosué1720−9
MPaulo Roberto15950
FPedro Rocha1813−5
CFernando Seabra1850−5
Before kick-off: 67% · 20% · 13%(Atletico-MG · draw · Coritiba)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 1–0 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Atletico-MG €2.4M, Coritiba €976K.
  • Atletico-MG were without 1 expected starter: A. Franco (2167).
  • Draw chance was 20%, below the Série A average of 26% this round.
  • Atletico-MG were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Atletico-MG

7th in Série A · 47 pts from 30

  • 14 OctWAtletico Torque 2046
  • 11 OctWSantos 1978
  • 8 OctDAtletico Paranaense 2031
  • 3 OctWRB Bragantino 2024
  • 19 SepDChapecoense-SC 1977

Coritiba

11th in Série A · 39 pts from 30

  • 12 OctDBotafogo 1777
  • 9 OctLFluminense 1827
  • 19 SepLVasco Da Gama 1742
  • 12 SepDAtletico Paranaense 1816
  • 6 SepLMirassol 1806

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Atletico-MG47 /3059.20%20%0%6th
Coritiba39 /3046.40%0%3%13th
Atletico-MG
Coritiba

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Léo Duarte
Léo Duarte

Atletico-MG · +1.3 (Good) · Elo 2092

Josué
Josué

Coritiba · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1729

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Eduardo Rodrigo Domínguez

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Fernando Seabra

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Atletico-MG: possession-based (how Eduardo Rodrigo Domínguez plays) · Coritiba: balanced profile (how Fernando Seabra plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.