La Liga · Regular Season - 10
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Atletico Madrid host Deportivo La Coruna on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atletico Madrid 78%, draw 15%, Deportivo La Coruna 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico Madrid €24.9M, Deportivo La Coruna €2.3M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of La Liga matchday 10: 421 points.
- Draw chance 15%, below the La Liga average of 24% this round.
- Atletico Madrid have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atletico Madrid goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 4–07%
- 1–17%
- Other scores49%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com3–1expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.3 pts
Team Elo: Atletico Madrid 2378 · Deportivo La Coruna 1957
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 2458
Deportivo La Coruna · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1860
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico Madrid
2nd in La Liga · 22 pts from 9
- 17 OctWEspanyol La Liga2372
- 13 OctWManchester United UEFA Champions League2396
- 10 OctWAlaves La Liga2348
- 20 SepWReal Madrid La Liga2353
- 16 SepWOsasuna La Liga2327
Deportivo La Coruna
9th in La Liga · 11 pts from 9
- 16 OctDLevante La Liga1932
- 11 OctLReal Sociedad La Liga1939
- 20 SepDReal Betis La Liga1949
- 16 SepLSevilla La Liga2040
- 13 SepDGetafe La Liga2094
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 22 /9 | 80.7 | 2% | 98% | 0% | 3rd |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 11 /9 | 41.6 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico Madrid: possession-based (how Diego Pablo Simeone González plays) · Deportivo La Coruna: possession-based (how Antonio Hidalgo Morilla plays)