La Liga · Regular Season - 12
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Atletico Madrid host Barcelona on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atletico Madrid 28%, draw 28%, Barcelona 43%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico Madrid €24.8M, Barcelona €60.0M.
- La Liga: Joan García is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2690).
- Barcelona's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.7 over 180 days.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atletico Madrid goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Atletico Madrid 2376 · Barcelona 2597
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 2458
Barcelona · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.4 (Elite) · Elo 2785
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico Madrid
2nd in La Liga · 22 pts from 9
- 20 OctDVfB Stuttgart UEFA Champions League2421
- 17 OctWEspanyol La Liga2372
- 13 OctWManchester United UEFA Champions League2396
- 10 OctWAlaves La Liga2348
- 20 SepWReal Madrid La Liga2353
Barcelona
1st in La Liga · 27 pts from 9
- 20 OctLParis Saint Germain UEFA Champions League2624
- 17 OctWReal Betis La Liga2636
- 13 OctWGalatasaray UEFA Champions League2677
- 10 OctWGetafe La Liga2598
- 19 SepWSevilla La Liga2614
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 22 /9 | 80.4 | 2% | 98% | 0% | 3rd |
| Barcelona | 27 /9 | 96.4 | 88% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico Madrid: possession-based (how D. Simeone plays) · Barcelona: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Hansi Flick plays)