Serie B · Regular Season - 35
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC
Atletico Goianiense host Novorizontino on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atletico Goianiense 39%, draw 29%, Novorizontino 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico Goianiense €536K, Novorizontino €542K.
- Home advantage makes Atletico Goianiense the favourite here: it adds 11 points to their win chance.
- Serie B: Jordi is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1876).
- Atletico Goianiense's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.5 over 180 days.
- Novorizontino are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atletico Goianiense goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Atletico Goianiense 1692 · Novorizontino 1778
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico Goianiense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 1799
Novorizontino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1910
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico Goianiense
6th in Serie B · 54 pts from 34
- 16 OctDPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1711
- 11 OctDSport Recife Brazil Serie B1733
- 7 OctLCRB Brazil Serie B1754
- 3 OctWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1751
- 26 SepWGoias Brazil Serie B1719
Novorizontino
2nd in Serie B · 61 pts from 34
- 18 OctDVila Nova Brazil Serie B1764
- 12 OctWPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1727
- 8 OctWNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1776
- 2 OctWGoias Brazil Serie B1764
- 25 SepDSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1763
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense | 54 /34 | 59.1 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 6th |
| Novorizontino | 61 /34 | 67.1 | 27% | 88% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico Goianiense: balanced profile (how Roger Rodrigues da Silva plays) · Novorizontino: balanced profile (how Enderson Alves Moreira plays)