Primera Nacional · Regular Season - 34
Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Quilmes
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio Nuevo Monumental, Rafaela
Atletico DE RafaelaTeam 1421QuilmesTeam 1476- M. Moreno 2' (pen)
We gave Atletico DE Rafaela 38% to win: they did.
- M. Moreno – (pen.)2'Atletico DE Rafaela:M. Moreno – (pen.)
- 40'J. Novillo –Quilmes:J. Novillo –
- 45'A. Ortega –Quilmes:A. Ortega –
- A. Solveyra –51'Atletico DE Rafaela:A. Solveyra –
- 54'G. Vazquez – for A. Ortega –Quilmes:G. Vazquez – for A. Ortega –
- A. Obando –58'Atletico DE Rafaela:A. Obando –
- L. Flores – for L. Albertengo –62'Atletico DE Rafaela:L. Flores – for L. Albertengo –
- 64'J. Aimale –Quilmes:J. Aimale –
- M. Moreno –68'Atletico DE Rafaela:M. Moreno –
- J. Capurro – for E. Pepino –69'Atletico DE Rafaela:J. Capurro – for E. Pepino –
- R. Ramirez – for A. Obando –70'Atletico DE Rafaela:R. Ramirez – for A. Obando –
- F. Soloa –70'Atletico DE Rafaela:F. Soloa –
- 72'N. Colazo – for J. Novillo –Quilmes:N. Colazo – for J. Novillo –
- 72'R. Martinez – for J. Aimale –Quilmes:R. Martinez – for J. Aimale –
- 75'N. Colazo –Quilmes:N. Colazo –
- 81'R. Martinez –Quilmes:R. Martinez –
- 84'M. Fernandez – for F. Yozwiak –Quilmes:M. Fernandez – for F. Yozwiak –
- A. Rodriguez – for E. Wuattier –90+1'Atletico DE Rafaela:A. Rodriguez – for E. Wuattier –
Before kick-off (provisional): 38% · 29% · 33%(Atletico DE Rafaela · draw · Quilmes)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–0 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico DE Rafaela €102K, Quilmes €160K.
- Home advantage made Atletico DE Rafaela the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
- G. Fernández (Atletico DE Rafaela) had not played for over 90 days.
- T. Ortega, J. Yangali, A. Kippes and A. Lavezzi (Quilmes) had not played for over 90 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico DE Rafaela
11th in Primera Nacional · 42 pts from 33
- 29 AugWTristan Suarez Argentine Primera Nacional1398
- 11 JulLDeportivo Maipu Argentine Primera Nacional1401
- 4 JulLAlmagro Argentine Primera Nacional1433
- 6 JunWColegiales Argentine Primera Nacional1446
- 31 MayLQuilmes Argentine Primera Nacional1456
Quilmes
14th in Primera Nacional · 39 pts from 33
- 26 SepWClub Atlético Güemes Argentine Primera Nacional1474
- 12 JulLMidland Argentine Primera Nacional1490
- 4 JulWAtlanta Argentine Primera Nacional1478
- 7 JunDSan Martin Tucuman Argentine Primera Nacional1491
- 31 MayWAtletico DE Rafaela Argentine Primera Nacional1480
Season outlook
From the Primera Nacional simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 42 /33 | 46.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19th |
| Quilmes | 39 /33 | 43.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 24th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 36th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico DE Rafaela · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1340
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –