Liga MX · Apertura - 14
Atlas vs Puebla
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Atlas host Puebla on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atlas 64%, draw 21%, Puebla 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atlas €2.5M, Puebla €817K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atlas goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Atlas 1922 · Puebla 1690
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atlas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1961
Puebla · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 (Good) · Elo 1854
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atlas
3rd in Liga MX · 21 pts from 12
- 17 OctWNecaxa Liga MX1913
- 11 OctDGuadalajara Chivas Liga MX1921
- 26 SepWClub Tijuana Liga MX1880
- 19 SepDU.N.A.M. - Pumas Liga MX1891
- 12 SepLToluca Liga MX1878
Puebla
12th in Liga MX · 16 pts from 12
- 17 OctDClub Tijuana Liga MX1678
- 10 OctDLeon Liga MX1680
- 27 SepLTigres UANL Liga MX1697
- 19 SepDAtlante FC Liga MX1700
- 16 SepLToluca Liga MX1704
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 21 /12 | 29.0 | 8% | 54% | 0% | 3rd |
| Puebla | 16 /12 | 20.8 | 0% | 1% | 6% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atlas: direct (how Hernán Jorge Crespo plays) · Puebla: direct (how Gerardo Espinoza Ahumada plays)