Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 30
Atlanta United FC 1–3 Inter Miami
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta
Atlanta United FCTeam 1945Inter MiamiTeam 2153- Fafà Picault 89' (pen)
- Germán Berterame 45'
- Lionel Messi 56', 60'
We gave Inter Miami 48% to win: they did.
- Tomás Jacob 1957 044'Atlanta United FC:Tomás Jacob 1957 0
- 45'Germán Berterame 2199 +24 assist Luis Suárez 1916 +48Inter Miami:Germán Berterame 2199 +24 assist Luis Suárez 1916 +48
- Mauricio Amaro 1645 054'Atlanta United FC:Mauricio Amaro 1645 0
- 56'Lionel Messi 2124 +22 assist Germán Berterame 2199 +24Inter Miami:Lionel Messi 2124 +22 assist Germán Berterame 2199 +24
- 60'Lionel Messi 2124 +22 assist Luis Suárez 1916 +48Inter Miami:Lionel Messi 2124 +22 assist Luis Suárez 1916 +48
- Steven Alzate 1778 −1 for Tristan Muyumba 1917 −261'Atlanta United FC:Steven Alzate 1778 −1 for Tristan Muyumba 1917 −2
- Breel Embolo 2255 −1871'Atlanta United FC:Breel Embolo 2255 −18
- 75'Maximiliano Falcon 2189 0 for Carlos Henrique Casimiro 2241 +11Inter Miami:Maximiliano Falcon 2189 0 for Carlos Henrique Casimiro 2241 +11
- 81'Telasco Segovia 2191 +1 for Matías Galarza 2068 +14Inter Miami:Telasco Segovia 2191 +1 for Matías Galarza 2068 +14
- 81'Facundo Mura 2029 −7* for Germán Berterame 2199 +24Inter Miami:Facundo Mura 2029 −7* for Germán Berterame 2199 +24
- Cooper Sanchez 1836 0 for Giuliano Galoppo 2030 −181'Atlanta United FC:Cooper Sanchez 1836 0 for Giuliano Galoppo 2030 −1
- Fafà Picault 1600 −8 for Miguel Almirón 2003 −582'Atlanta United FC:Fafà Picault 1600 −8 for Miguel Almirón 2003 −5
- Matthew Edwards 1820 0 for Elías Báez 2007 082'Atlanta United FC:Matthew Edwards 1820 0 for Elías Báez 2007 0
- 89'Maximiliano Falcon 2189 0Inter Miami:Maximiliano Falcon 2189 0
- Fafà Picault 1600 −8 (pen.)89'Atlanta United FC:Fafà Picault 1600 −8 (pen.)
- 90+6'Lionel Messi 2124 +22Inter Miami:Lionel Messi 2124 +22
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 32% · 20% · 48%(Atlanta United FC · draw · Inter Miami)
Our most likely score was 2–2 (7%); the result 1–3 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Atlanta United FC €2.9M, Inter Miami €4.1M.
- Inter Miami were without 1 expected starter: Y. Bright (2194).
- Largest team-Elo gap of MLS matchday 30: 155 points.
- MLS: B. Embolo was the highest-rated forward (2273).
- MLS: D. St. Clair was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2148).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atlanta United FC
14th in MLS · 30 pts from 29
- 14 OctWCF Montreal MLS1920
- 10 OctLFC Cincinnati MLS1944
- 26 SepDNew York City FC MLS1870
- 20 SepWPortland Timbers MLS1908
- 12 SepDDC United MLS1926
Inter Miami
2nd in MLS · 52 pts from 29
- 14 OctWNew York City FC MLS2088
- 10 OctWDC United MLS2083
- 27 SepLColumbus Crew MLS2092
- 12 SepDNashville SC MLS2120
- 10 SepDChicago Fire MLS2122
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 30 /29 | 37.4 | 0% | 0% | 19% | 28th |
| Inter Miami | 52 /29 | 60.5 | 0% | 81% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atlanta United FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 2007
Inter Miami · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +10.8 (Elite) · Elo 2102
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atlanta United FC: balanced profile (how Gerardo Daniel Martino plays) · Inter Miami: possession-based (how Kily Gonzalez plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.