La Liga · Regular Season - 11
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao
Athletic Club host Real Sociedad on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Athletic Club 43%, draw 28%, Real Sociedad 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Athletic Club €13.2M, Real Sociedad €13.8M.
- Home advantage makes Athletic Club the favourite here: it adds 10 points to their win chance; La Liga has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Athletic Club goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: Athletic Club 2179 · Real Sociedad 2206
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Athletic Club · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2458
Real Sociedad · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 2245
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Athletic Club
11th in La Liga · 9 pts from 7
- 17 OctDValencia La Liga2114
- 19 SepDAlaves La Liga2183
- 12 SepDElche La Liga2226
- 5 SepWAtletico Madrid La Liga2186
- 30 AugWCelta Vigo La Liga2140
Real Sociedad
5th in La Liga · 16 pts from 9
- 18 OctWMalaga La Liga2180
- 15 OctDUnion St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League2169
- 11 OctWDeportivo La Coruna La Liga2156
- 20 SepWValencia La Liga2148
- 17 SepLBournemouth UEFA Europa League2110
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 9 /7 | 57.1 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 6th |
| Real Sociedad | 16 /9 | 63.9 | 0% | 19% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Athletic Club: balanced profile (how Edin Terzić plays) · Real Sociedad: balanced profile (how Pellegrino Matarazzo plays)