Serie B · Regular Season - 36
Athletic Club vs Ceara
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Athletic Club host Ceara on Mon 2 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Athletic Club 46%, draw 28%, Ceara 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Athletic Club €409K, Ceara €548K.
- Home advantage makes Athletic Club the favourite here: it adds 11 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in attacking (Serie B): Athletic Club rank #20 of 23, Ceara #4.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Athletic Club goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Athletic Club 1667 · Ceara 1672
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Athletic Club · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1734
Ceara · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Elite) · Elo 1537
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Athletic Club
14th in Serie B · 44 pts from 34
- 18 OctDAvai Brazil Serie B1654
- 13 OctDLondrina Brazil Serie B1684
- 6 OctLGoias Brazil Serie B1694
- 1 OctLSport Recife Brazil Serie B1655
- 27 SepDFortaleza EC Brazil Serie B1690
Ceara
15th in Serie B · 43 pts from 34
- 17 OctDJuventude Brazil Serie B1681
- 13 OctLBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1704
- 8 OctWCriciuma Brazil Serie B1650
- 3 OctWAvai Brazil Serie B1629
- 26 SepDOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1662
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 44 /34 | 49.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14th |
| Ceara | 43 /34 | 48.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Athletic Club: balanced profile (how Alexsandro de Souza plays) · Ceara: direct (how Daniel Pollo Barioni plays)