Serie B · Regular Season - 37
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Athletic Club host Atletico Goianiense on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Athletic Club 43%, draw 28%, Atletico Goianiense 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Athletic Club €416K, Atletico Goianiense €548K.
- Home advantage makes Athletic Club the favourite here: it adds 11 points to their win chance.
- Atletico Goianiense's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.5 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Athletic Club goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Athletic Club 1656 · Atletico Goianiense 1692
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Athletic Club · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1720
Atletico Goianiense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 1799
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Athletic Club
14th in Serie B · 44 pts from 35
- 23 OctLOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1634
- 18 OctDAvai Brazil Serie B1654
- 13 OctDLondrina Brazil Serie B1684
- 6 OctLGoias Brazil Serie B1694
- 1 OctLSport Recife Brazil Serie B1655
Atletico Goianiense
6th in Serie B · 54 pts from 34
- 16 OctDPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1711
- 11 OctDSport Recife Brazil Serie B1733
- 7 OctLCRB Brazil Serie B1754
- 3 OctWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1751
- 26 SepWGoias Brazil Serie B1719
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 44 /35 | 48.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15th |
| Atletico Goianiense | 54 /34 | 59.2 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Athletic Club: balanced profile (how Alex plays) · Atletico Goianiense: balanced profile (how Roger plays)