Premier League · Regular Season - 11
Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham
Aston Villa host Sunderland on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Aston Villa 53%, draw 26%, Sunderland 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Aston Villa €29.7M, Sunderland €19.7M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Aston Villa goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 0–16%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.1 pts
Team Elo: Aston Villa 2336 · Sunderland 2192
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Aston Villa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2448
Sunderland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 2172
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aston Villa
10th in Premier League · 13 pts from 10
- 8 NovDManchester United Premier League2365
- 3 NovLBarcelona UEFA Champions League2439
- 31 OctDFulham Premier League2400
- 28 OctLBournemouth England League Cup2155
- 24 OctWManchester City Premier League2364
Sunderland
19th in Premier League · 8 pts from 10
- 8 NovWChelsea Premier League2198
- 5 NovLDinamo Zagreb UEFA Europa League2125
- 31 OctLCoventry Premier League2218
- 28 OctWBrentford England League Cup1984
- 25 OctDLeeds Premier League2215
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 13 /10 | 53.5 | 0% | 8% | 1% | 9th |
| Sunderland | 8 /10 | 39.7 | 0% | 0% | 32% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Aston Villa: low-block (how Unai Emery plays) · Sunderland: balanced profile (how R. Le Bris plays)