Premier League · Regular Season - 8
Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham
Aston Villa host Manchester City on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Aston Villa 24%, draw 27%, Manchester City 49%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Aston Villa €27.7M, Manchester City €58.9M.
- Premier League: Rúben Dias is the highest-rated defender (2704).
- Manchester City's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Aston Villa goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 2–16%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.9 pts
Team Elo: Aston Villa 2375 · Manchester City 2618
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Aston Villa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2410
Manchester City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2571
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aston Villa
12th in Premier League · 8 pts from 7
- 17 OctWNewcastle Premier League2328
- 14 OctWFenerbahçe UEFA Champions League2325
- 10 OctDBrentford Premier League2394
- 19 SepWTottenham Premier League2344
- 16 SepWCoventry England League Cup2121
Manchester City
1st in Premier League · 21 pts from 7
- 17 OctWIpswich Premier League2592
- 14 OctLParis Saint Germain UEFA Champions League2653
- 11 OctWLiverpool Premier League2628
- 20 SepWSunderland Premier League2621
- 17 SepWNorwich England League Cup2296
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 8 /7 | 56.6 | 0% | 19% | <1% | 6th |
| Manchester City | 21 /7 | 85.1 | 56% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Aston Villa: low-block (how Unai Emery Etxegoien plays) · Manchester City: possession-based · creative (how Enzo Maresca plays)