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Premier League · Regular Season - 6

Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa crestAston VillaTeam 2355
2–2
Full time
HT 1–1
Brentford crestBrentfordTeam 2311

Match story

Aston Villa · draw · Brentford

Before kick-off: 46% · 27% · 27%

Live chances: Aston Villa 0%, draw 100%, Brentford 0% at 90+8'1' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 45%, draw 27%, Brentford 27%2' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 45%, draw 27%, Brentford 27%3' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 45%, draw 27%, Brentford 27%4' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 45%, draw 27%, Brentford 27%5' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 45%, draw 28%, Brentford 27%6' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 45%, draw 28%, Brentford 27%7' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 45%, draw 28%, Brentford 27%8' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 45%, draw 28%, Brentford 27%9' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 44%, draw 28%, Brentford 27%10' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 44%, draw 28%, Brentford 27%11' · 0–0 · Aston Villa 44%, draw 28%, Brentford 27%12' · 0–1 · Aston Villa 26%, draw 25%, Brentford 49%13' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 44%, draw 29%, Brentford 27%14' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 44%, draw 29%, Brentford 27%15' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 44%, draw 29%, Brentford 27%16' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 43%, draw 29%, Brentford 27%17' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 43%, draw 29%, Brentford 27%18' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 43%, draw 30%, Brentford 27%19' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 43%, draw 30%, Brentford 27%20' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 43%, draw 30%, Brentford 27%21' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 43%, draw 30%, Brentford 27%22' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 42%, draw 30%, Brentford 27%23' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 42%, draw 31%, Brentford 27%24' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 42%, draw 31%, Brentford 27%25' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 42%, draw 31%, Brentford 27%26' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 42%, draw 31%, Brentford 27%27' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 42%, draw 31%, Brentford 27%28' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 41%, draw 32%, Brentford 27%29' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 41%, draw 32%, Brentford 27%30' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 41%, draw 32%, Brentford 27%31' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 41%, draw 32%, Brentford 27%32' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 41%, draw 33%, Brentford 27%33' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 40%, draw 33%, Brentford 27%34' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 40%, draw 33%, Brentford 27%35' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 40%, draw 34%, Brentford 26%36' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 40%, draw 34%, Brentford 26%37' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 40%, draw 34%, Brentford 26%38' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 39%, draw 34%, Brentford 26%39' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 39%, draw 35%, Brentford 26%40' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 39%, draw 35%, Brentford 26%41' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 39%, draw 35%, Brentford 26%42' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 38%, draw 36%, Brentford 26%43' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 38%, draw 36%, Brentford 26%44' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 38%, draw 36%, Brentford 26%45' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 38%, draw 37%, Brentford 26%45+1' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 37%, draw 37%, Brentford 26%45+2' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 37%, draw 38%, Brentford 25%45+3' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 37%, draw 38%, Brentford 25%45+4' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 37%, draw 38%, Brentford 25%45+5' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 37%, draw 38%, Brentford 25%HT · 1–1 · Aston Villa 37%, draw 38%, Brentford 25%46' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 37%, draw 38%, Brentford 25%48' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 36%, draw 39%, Brentford 25%49' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 36%, draw 39%, Brentford 25%50' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 35%, draw 40%, Brentford 25%51' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 35%, draw 41%, Brentford 24%52' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 35%, draw 41%, Brentford 24%53' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 34%, draw 42%, Brentford 24%54' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 34%, draw 42%, Brentford 24%55' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 33%, draw 43%, Brentford 24%56' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 33%, draw 44%, Brentford 23%57' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 32%, draw 44%, Brentford 23%58' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 32%, draw 45%, Brentford 23%59' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 32%, draw 46%, Brentford 23%60' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 31%, draw 46%, Brentford 22%61' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 31%, draw 47%, Brentford 22%62' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 30%, draw 48%, Brentford 22%63' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 30%, draw 49%, Brentford 22%64' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 29%, draw 49%, Brentford 21%65' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 29%, draw 50%, Brentford 21%66' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 28%, draw 51%, Brentford 21%67' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 28%, draw 52%, Brentford 21%68' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 27%, draw 53%, Brentford 20%69' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 27%, draw 53%, Brentford 20%70' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 26%, draw 54%, Brentford 19%71' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 26%, draw 55%, Brentford 19%72' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 25%, draw 56%, Brentford 19%73' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 24%, draw 57%, Brentford 18%75' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 23%, draw 59%, Brentford 17%76' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 22%, draw 61%, Brentford 17%77' · 1–1 · Aston Villa 22%, draw 62%, Brentford 17%78' · 2–1 · Aston Villa 84%, draw 14%, Brentford 2%79' · 2–1 · Aston Villa 84%, draw 14%, Brentford 2%80' · 2–1 · Aston Villa 85%, draw 14%, Brentford 2%81' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 19%, draw 67%, Brentford 14%82' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 18%, draw 69%, Brentford 14%83' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 17%, draw 70%, Brentford 13%84' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 16%, draw 72%, Brentford 12%85' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 15%, draw 73%, Brentford 12%86' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 14%, draw 75%, Brentford 11%87' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 13%, draw 77%, Brentford 10%88' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 12%, draw 79%, Brentford 9%89' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 11%, draw 81%, Brentford 9%90' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 10%, draw 83%, Brentford 8%90+1' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 8%, draw 85%, Brentford 7%90+2' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 7%, draw 87%, Brentford 6%90+3' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 6%, draw 90%, Brentford 4%90+4' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 4%, draw 93%, Brentford 3%90+5' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 2%, draw 96%, Brentford 2%90+7' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 0%, draw 100%, Brentford 0%90+8' · 2–2 · Aston Villa 0%, draw 100%, Brentford 0%

Last reading, 90+8': 0% · 100% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Aston Villa 46% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 10'Brentford:Yehor Yarmoliuk 2319 +1*
  2. 12'Aston Villa:Nicolas Jackson 2481 −13*
  3. 35'Brentford:Igor Thiago 2394 −4*
  4. 45'Aston Villa:Aaron Wan-Bissaka 2253 −9* for Matteo Ruggeri 2511 −1
  5. 45'Brentford:Aaron Hickey 2283 +2 for Jannik Schuster 2054 −4*
  6. 45+3'Aston Villa:Emiliano Buendía 2452 −11*
  7. 52'Brentford:Mamadou Sangare 2255 −6* for Kevin Schade 2361 −6*
  8. 64'Aston Villa:Ibrahim Mbaye 2105 −8* for Emiliano Buendía 2452 −11*
  9. 67'Brentford:Mathias Jensen 2269 −9* for Yehor Yarmoliuk 2319 +1*
  10. 67'Brentford:Dango Ouattara 2369 −7* for Keane Lewis-Potter 2344 −5*
  11. 72'Aston Villa:Matty Cash 2435 −3
  12. 75'Brentford:Vitaly Janelt 2384 +2
  13. 77'Aston Villa:John McGinn 2380 −6 assist Johan Manzambi 2351 −2
  14. 79'Brentford:Kristoffer Ajer 2469 +6 assist Jaidon Anthony 2232 +5*
  15. 82'Brentford:Michael Kayode 2503 +2
  16. 84'Brentford:Kristoffer Ajer 2469 +6
  17. 85'Brentford:Callum Wilson 1988 −13* for Jaidon Anthony 2232 +5*
  18. 86'Aston Villa:Ross Barkley 2014 −12* for João Gomes 2230 −8*
  19. 86'Aston Villa: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha 1764 −8* for Johan Manzambi 2351 −2
  20. 90+5'Brentford:Callum Wilson 1988 −13*
  21. 90+5'Brentford:K. Andrews

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GZ. Suzuki2148−8*
DM. Cash2435−3
DV. Lindelöf2380−5
DT. Mings2281−13*
DM. Ruggeri2511−1
MB. Kamara2486−10*
MJoão Gomes2230−8*
MJ. McGinn2380−6
ME. Buendía2452−11*
MJ. Manzambi2351−2
FN. Jackson2481−13*
CUnai Emery2455−10*
GC. Kelleher2428+3
DM. Kayode2503+2
DK. Ajer2469+6
DJannik Schuster2054−4*
DE. Diouf2268−3*
MY. Yarmolyuk2319+1*
MV. Janelt2384+2
MJ. Anthony2232+5*
MK. Lewis-Potter2344−5*
MK. Schade2361−6*
FThiago2394−4*
CKeith Andrews2384−1*
Before kick-off: 46% · 27% · 27%(Aston Villa · draw · Brentford)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–2 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Aston Villa €31.0M, Brentford €28.4M.
  • Aston Villa were without 2 expected starters: I. Maatsen (2407) and M. Cash (2438).
  • Home advantage made Aston Villa the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
  • Brentford were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Aston Villa

16th in Premier League · 4 pts from 5

  • 19 SepWTottenham 2344
  • 16 SepWCoventry 2121
  • 12 SepLNottingham Forest 2238
  • 8 SepWClub Brugge KV 2233
  • 5 SepDHull City 2228

Brentford

4th in Premier League · 9 pts from 5

  • 18 SepWChelsea 2306
  • 15 SepWReading 2236
  • 12 SepDBournemouth 2280
  • 5 SepDSunderland 2365
  • 30 AugDLeeds 2343

Season outlook

From the Premier League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Aston Villa4 /551.00%8%4%10th
Brentford9 /555.50%21%1%6th
Aston Villa
Brentford

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Premier League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

J. Manzambi
J. Manzambi

Aston Villa · +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2353

Jannik Schuster
Jannik Schuster

Brentford · +2.3 (Good) · Elo 2058

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Unai Emery Etxegoien

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Keith Andrews

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Aston Villa: low-block (how Unai Emery Etxegoien plays) · Brentford: balanced profile (how Keith Andrews plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.