Serie B · Regular Season - 7
Ascoli 1–1 Empoli
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
AscoliTeam 1573EmpoliTeam 1628- Nicholas Rizzo 26'
- Joseph Ceesay 14'
We gave Ascoli 38% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 14'Joseph Ceesay –Empoli:Joseph Ceesay –
- Nicholas Rizzo – assist Matteo Brunori26'Ascoli:Nicholas Rizzo – assist Matteo Brunori
- 45'Filippo Bandinelli – for Edoardo Biondini –Empoli:Filippo Bandinelli – for Edoardo Biondini –
- 54'Lapo Deli – for Gerard Yepes –Empoli:Lapo Deli – for Gerard Yepes –
- Don Bolsius – for Gennao Acampora –62'Ascoli:Don Bolsius – for Gennao Acampora –
- amine chakir – for Matteo Brunori62'Ascoli:amine chakir – for Matteo Brunori
- Giacomo De Pieri – for Andrea·Silipo –63'Ascoli:Giacomo De Pieri – for Andrea·Silipo –
- Tommaso Milanese – for Andrea Oliveri –63'Ascoli:Tommaso Milanese – for Andrea Oliveri –
- 63'Steven Shpendi – for Bogdan Popov –Empoli:Steven Shpendi – for Bogdan Popov –
- Federico Gattoni – for Marcos Curado –71'Ascoli:Federico Gattoni – for Marcos Curado –
- 84'Matteo Egan – for Joseph Ceesay –Empoli:Matteo Egan – for Joseph Ceesay –
- 84'Luca Belardinelli – for Edoardo Saporiti –Empoli:Luca Belardinelli – for Edoardo Saporiti –
- 90'Luca Magnino –Empoli:Luca Magnino –
- Abdoul Guiebre –90+2'Ascoli:Abdoul Guiebre –
Before kick-off (provisional): 38% · 29% · 33%(Ascoli · draw · Empoli)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ascoli €408K, Empoli €577K.
- Home advantage made Ascoli the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ascoli
5th in Serie B · 11 pts from 6
- 10 OctDSudtirol Italy Serie B1567
- 19 SepWAvellino Italy Serie B1398
- 12 SepLPadova Italy Serie B1441
- 5 SepWBenevento Italy Serie B1453
- 29 AugDCarrarese Italy Serie B1428
Empoli
13th in Serie B · 6 pts from 6
- 10 OctLPalermo Italy Serie B1629
- 20 SepLModena Italy Serie B1651
- 11 SepLArezzo Italy Serie B1668
- 5 SepWCarrarese Italy Serie B1652
- 30 AugLMantova Italy Serie B1661
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 11 /6 | 46.1 | 0% | 2% | 16% | 16th |
| Empoli | 6 /6 | 45.1 | 0% | 1% | 20% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ascoli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1637
Empoli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1728
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ascoli: direct (how Francesco Tomei plays) · Empoli: direct (how Matteo Andreoletti plays)