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Premier League · Regular Season - 6

Arsenal 2–1 Leeds

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal crestArsenalTeam 2690
2–1
Full time
HT 0–0
Leeds crestLeedsTeam 2355

Match story

Arsenal · draw · Leeds

Before kick-off: 69% · 19% · 12%

Live chances: Arsenal 99%, draw 1%, Leeds 0% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · Arsenal 69%, draw 19%, Leeds 12%2' · 0–0 · Arsenal 68%, draw 20%, Leeds 12%3' · 0–0 · Arsenal 68%, draw 20%, Leeds 12%4' · 0–0 · Arsenal 68%, draw 20%, Leeds 12%5' · 0–0 · Arsenal 68%, draw 20%, Leeds 12%6' · 0–0 · Arsenal 68%, draw 20%, Leeds 12%7' · 0–0 · Arsenal 67%, draw 20%, Leeds 12%8' · 0–0 · Arsenal 67%, draw 21%, Leeds 12%9' · 0–0 · Arsenal 67%, draw 21%, Leeds 12%10' · 0–0 · Arsenal 67%, draw 21%, Leeds 12%11' · 0–0 · Arsenal 66%, draw 21%, Leeds 12%12' · 0–0 · Arsenal 66%, draw 21%, Leeds 13%13' · 0–0 · Arsenal 66%, draw 22%, Leeds 13%14' · 0–0 · Arsenal 66%, draw 22%, Leeds 13%15' · 0–0 · Arsenal 65%, draw 22%, Leeds 13%16' · 0–0 · Arsenal 65%, draw 22%, Leeds 13%17' · 0–0 · Arsenal 65%, draw 22%, Leeds 13%18' · 0–0 · Arsenal 64%, draw 23%, Leeds 13%19' · 0–0 · Arsenal 64%, draw 23%, Leeds 13%20' · 0–0 · Arsenal 64%, draw 23%, Leeds 13%21' · 0–0 · Arsenal 64%, draw 23%, Leeds 13%22' · 0–0 · Arsenal 63%, draw 24%, Leeds 13%23' · 0–0 · Arsenal 63%, draw 24%, Leeds 13%24' · 0–0 · Arsenal 63%, draw 24%, Leeds 13%25' · 0–0 · Arsenal 62%, draw 24%, Leeds 13%26' · 0–0 · Arsenal 62%, draw 25%, Leeds 13%27' · 0–0 · Arsenal 62%, draw 25%, Leeds 14%28' · 0–0 · Arsenal 61%, draw 25%, Leeds 14%29' · 0–0 · Arsenal 61%, draw 25%, Leeds 14%31' · 0–0 · Arsenal 60%, draw 26%, Leeds 14%33' · 0–0 · Arsenal 60%, draw 27%, Leeds 14%34' · 0–0 · Arsenal 59%, draw 27%, Leeds 14%35' · 0–0 · Arsenal 59%, draw 27%, Leeds 14%36' · 0–0 · Arsenal 58%, draw 28%, Leeds 14%37' · 0–0 · Arsenal 58%, draw 28%, Leeds 14%38' · 0–0 · Arsenal 58%, draw 28%, Leeds 14%39' · 0–0 · Arsenal 57%, draw 29%, Leeds 14%40' · 0–0 · Arsenal 57%, draw 29%, Leeds 14%41' · 0–0 · Arsenal 56%, draw 29%, Leeds 14%42' · 0–0 · Arsenal 56%, draw 30%, Leeds 14%43' · 0–0 · Arsenal 56%, draw 30%, Leeds 14%45' · 0–0 · Arsenal 55%, draw 31%, Leeds 14%45+2' · 0–0 · Arsenal 54%, draw 32%, Leeds 15%45+3' · 0–0 · Arsenal 53%, draw 32%, Leeds 15%HT · 0–0 · Arsenal 53%, draw 32%, Leeds 15%47' · 0–0 · Arsenal 53%, draw 33%, Leeds 15%48' · 0–0 · Arsenal 52%, draw 33%, Leeds 15%49' · 0–0 · Arsenal 51%, draw 34%, Leeds 15%50' · 0–0 · Arsenal 51%, draw 35%, Leeds 15%51' · 0–0 · Arsenal 50%, draw 35%, Leeds 15%52' · 0–0 · Arsenal 50%, draw 36%, Leeds 15%53' · 0–0 · Arsenal 49%, draw 36%, Leeds 15%54' · 0–0 · Arsenal 48%, draw 37%, Leeds 15%55' · 0–0 · Arsenal 48%, draw 38%, Leeds 15%56' · 0–1 · Arsenal 21%, draw 31%, Leeds 48%57' · 0–1 · Arsenal 20%, draw 31%, Leeds 49%58' · 0–1 · Arsenal 20%, draw 31%, Leeds 49%59' · 0–1 · Arsenal 19%, draw 31%, Leeds 50%60' · 0–1 · Arsenal 18%, draw 31%, Leeds 51%61' · 0–1 · Arsenal 18%, draw 31%, Leeds 52%62' · 0–1 · Arsenal 17%, draw 31%, Leeds 53%63' · 1–1 · Arsenal 42%, draw 44%, Leeds 14%64' · 1–1 · Arsenal 41%, draw 45%, Leeds 14%65' · 1–1 · Arsenal 40%, draw 46%, Leeds 14%66' · 1–1 · Arsenal 40%, draw 47%, Leeds 14%67' · 1–1 · Arsenal 39%, draw 47%, Leeds 14%68' · 1–1 · Arsenal 38%, draw 48%, Leeds 14%69' · 1–1 · Arsenal 37%, draw 49%, Leeds 13%70' · 1–1 · Arsenal 36%, draw 50%, Leeds 13%71' · 2–1 · Arsenal 87%, draw 12%, Leeds 2%72' · 2–1 · Arsenal 87%, draw 12%, Leeds 1%73' · 2–1 · Arsenal 87%, draw 11%, Leeds 1%74' · 2–1 · Arsenal 87%, draw 11%, Leeds 1%75' · 2–1 · Arsenal 88%, draw 11%, Leeds 1%76' · 2–1 · Arsenal 88%, draw 11%, Leeds 1%77' · 2–1 · Arsenal 88%, draw 11%, Leeds 1%78' · 2–1 · Arsenal 88%, draw 11%, Leeds 1%79' · 2–1 · Arsenal 89%, draw 10%, Leeds 1%80' · 2–1 · Arsenal 89%, draw 10%, Leeds 1%81' · 2–1 · Arsenal 89%, draw 10%, Leeds 1%82' · 2–1 · Arsenal 90%, draw 9%, Leeds 1%83' · 2–1 · Arsenal 90%, draw 9%, Leeds 1%84' · 2–1 · Arsenal 91%, draw 9%, Leeds 1%85' · 2–1 · Arsenal 91%, draw 8%, Leeds 1%86' · 2–1 · Arsenal 92%, draw 8%, Leeds 0%87' · 2–1 · Arsenal 92%, draw 7%, Leeds 0%88' · 2–1 · Arsenal 93%, draw 7%, Leeds 0%89' · 2–1 · Arsenal 93%, draw 6%, Leeds 0%90' · 2–1 · Arsenal 94%, draw 6%, Leeds 0%90+1' · 2–1 · Arsenal 95%, draw 5%, Leeds 0%90+2' · 2–1 · Arsenal 96%, draw 4%, Leeds 0%90+3' · 2–1 · Arsenal 97%, draw 3%, Leeds 0%90+4' · 2–1 · Arsenal 97%, draw 3%, Leeds 0%90+5' · 2–1 · Arsenal 98%, draw 2%, Leeds 0%90+6' · 2–1 · Arsenal 99%, draw 1%, Leeds 0%

Last reading, 90+6': 99% · 1% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Arsenal 69% to win: they did.

  1. 36'Leeds:Ao Tanaka 2303 −9*
  2. 38'Leeds:Ethan Ampadu 2379 −2
  3. 39'Leeds:Daniel Farke
  4. 55'Leeds:James Justin 2330 −9* assist Gabriel Gudmundsson 2356 −3
  5. 59'Leeds:Tarik Muharemovic 2384 −2
  6. 62'Arsenal:Riccardo Calafiori 2650 +12 assist Ben White 2619 +1*
  7. 63'Arsenal:Jurriën Timber 2641 +1 for Ben White 2619 +1*
  8. 63'Arsenal:Bruno Guimarães 2442 −3* for Myles Lewis-Skelly 2519 +5
  9. 63'Arsenal:Viktor Gyökeres 2553 +4 for Kai Havertz 2550 −4*
  10. 70'Arsenal:Bruno Guimarães 2442 −3* assist Declan Rice 2650 +5*
  11. 71'Leeds:Brenden Aaronson 2229 −8* for Noah Okafor 2283 −8*
  12. 71'Leeds:Harry Wilson 2337 −10* for Ao Tanaka 2303 −9*
  13. 78'Leeds:James Justin 2330 −9*
  14. 79'Leeds:Lukas Nmecha 2065 −8* for James Justin 2330 −9*
  15. 82'Arsenal:Piero Hincapié 2541 −7* for Riccardo Calafiori 2650 +12
  16. 84'Arsenal:Martin Odegaard 2660 +4
  17. 86'Leeds:Jaka Bijol 2322 −1 for Nico Elvedi 2407 −4
  18. 86'Leeds:Jean Matteo Bahoya 2015 −8* for Jayden Bogle 2320 −8*
  19. 90'Arsenal:Mikel Merino 2581 −2 for Martin Odegaard 2660 +4

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations3-4-2-1
GDavid Raya2715+10
DB. White2619+1*
DE. Konsa2597+14
DGabriel Magalhães2650−4*
DR. Calafiori2650+12
MD. Rice2650+5*
MM. Lewis-Skelly2519+5
MB. Saka2683+4
MM. Ødegaard2660+4
MN. Madueke2613+7*
FK. Havertz2550−4*
CMikel Arteta2650+1*
GJ. Trafford2537−13*
DJ. Justin2330−9*
DN. Elvedi2407−4
DT. Muharemović2384−2
MJ. Bogle2320−8*
ME. Ampadu2379−2
MA. Tanaka2303−9*
MG. Gudmundsson2356−3
MA. Stach2242−8*
MN. Okafor2283−8*
FD. Calvert-Lewin2283−2
CD. Farke2336−8*
Before kick-off: 69% · 19% · 12%(Arsenal · draw · Leeds)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 2–1 had 10%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Arsenal €56.1M, Leeds €18.6M.
  • Arsenal were without 1 expected starter: C. Tzolis (2478).
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 6: 303 points.
  • Draw chance was 21%, below the Premier League average of 27% this round.
  • Premier League: David Raya was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2705).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Arsenal

2nd in Premier League · 12 pts from 5

  • 19 SepLBrighton 2624
  • 15 SepWIpswich 2412
  • 12 SepWSunderland 2611
  • 9 SepWNapoli 2609
  • 6 SepWChelsea 2596

Leeds

5th in Premier League · 9 pts from 5

  • 20 SepDCrystal Palace 2333
  • 14 SepWNewcastle 2287
  • 9 SepLChelsea 2231
  • 5 SepDBrighton 2300
  • 30 AugDBrentford 2293

Season outlook

From the Premier League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Arsenal12 /581.048%100%0%1st
Leeds9 /555.1<1%19%1%5th
Arsenal
Leeds

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Premier League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

D. Rice
D. Rice

Arsenal · +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2645

N. Elvedi
N. Elvedi

Leeds · +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2411

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Mikel Arteta

Coach DNA: possession-based

Daniel Farke

Coach DNA: possession-based · creative

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Arsenal: creative (how Mikel Arteta plays) · Leeds: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Daniel Farke plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.