Premier League · Regular Season - 10
Arsenal vs Hull City
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal host Hull City on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Arsenal 85%, draw 10%, Hull City 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Arsenal €55.8M, Hull City €4.8M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 10: 568 points.
- Draw chance 10%, below the Premier League average of 26% this round.
- Premier League: David Raya is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2720).
- Arsenal's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.8 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Arsenal goals first.
- 3–010%
- 2–09%
- 4–09%
- 3–18%
- 2–17%
- 4–17%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com3–0expected 1.3 pts
voetbalpoules.nl3–0expected 5.7 pts
Team Elo: Arsenal 2615 · Hull City 2047
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Arsenal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Good) · Elo 2668
Hull City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 (Good) · Elo 2320
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Arsenal
2nd in Premier League · 18 pts from 7
- 21 OctDBayern München UEFA Champions League2635
- 18 OctWNottingham Forest Premier League2625
- 13 OctWLille UEFA Champions League2596
- 10 OctWLeeds Premier League2622
- 19 SepLBrighton Premier League2624
Hull City
9th in Premier League · 9 pts from 7
- 17 OctLFulham Premier League2054
- 11 OctDEverton Premier League2075
- 19 SepLNewcastle Premier League2056
- 12 SepDChelsea Premier League2058
- 8 SepLSunderland England League Cup1938
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 18 /7 | 82.4 | 38% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Hull City | 9 /7 | 34.0 | 0% | 0% | 71% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Arsenal: balanced profile (how Mikel Arteta plays) · Hull City: balanced profile (how Sergej Jakirović plays)