Premier League · Regular Season - 8
Arsenal vs Everton
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal host Everton on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Arsenal 71%, draw 18%, Everton 11%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Arsenal €54.2M, Everton €24.8M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 8: 354 points.
- Draw chance 18%, below the Premier League average of 27% this round.
- Premier League: David Raya is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2722).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Premier League): Arsenal rank #18 of 20, Everton #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Arsenal goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 3–09%
- 1–19%
- 1–08%
- 3–18%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.0 pts
Team Elo: Arsenal 2624 · Everton 2270
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Arsenal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Good) · Elo 2671
Everton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2380
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Arsenal
2nd in Premier League · 18 pts from 7
- 18 OctWNottingham Forest Premier League2625
- 13 OctWLille UEFA Champions League2596
- 10 OctWLeeds Premier League2622
- 19 SepLBrighton Premier League2624
- 15 SepWIpswich England League Cup2412
Everton
8th in Premier League · 10 pts from 7
- 17 OctLChelsea Premier League2322
- 11 OctDHull City Premier League2326
- 19 SepWIpswich Premier League2328
- 16 SepWWolves England League Cup2272
- 12 SepDTottenham Premier League2271
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 18 /7 | 83.6 | 44% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Everton | 10 /7 | 49.2 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Arsenal: balanced profile (how Mikel Arteta plays) · Everton: direct (how David William Moyes plays)