First League · Regular Season - 13
Arsenal Tula 3–2 Spartak Kostroma
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Arsenal Stadium (Tula), Tula
Arsenal TulaTeam 1386Spartak KostromaTeam 1459We gave Arsenal Tula 38% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 38% · 29% · 33%(Arsenal Tula · draw · Spartak Kostroma)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 3–2 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Arsenal Tula €220K, Spartak Kostroma €258K.
- Home advantage made Arsenal Tula the favourite: it added 9 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Arsenal Tula
12th in First League · 13 pts from 12
- 16 SepLEnisey Russia First League1448
- 13 SepDSka-khabarovsk Russia First League1426
- 5 SepLVolga Ulyanovsk Russia First League1443
- 29 AugDUral Russia First League1440
- 24 AugLVeles Russia First League1445
Spartak Kostroma
3rd in First League · 24 pts from 12
- 26 SepLUral Russia First League1476
- 18 SepWVolga Ulyanovsk Russia First League1462
- 14 SepWFK Neftekhimik Russia First League1485
- 5 SepWChelyabinsk Russia First League1465
- 31 AugWRotor Volgograd Russia First League1496
Season outlook
From the First League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tula | 13 /12 | 40.9 | 0% | <1% | 13% | 11th |
| Spartak Kostroma | 24 /12 | 55.4 | 3% | 39% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-volume
Coach DNA: –
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.