Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 10
Arouca vs Nacional
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 15:30 UTC
Arouca host Nacional on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Arouca 53%, draw 26%, Nacional 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Arouca €1.4M, Nacional €562K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Arouca goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Arouca 1766 · Nacional 1628
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Arouca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1864
Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1637
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Arouca
5th in Primeira Liga · 14 pts from 8
- 11 OctWEstrela Primeira Liga1815
- 19 SepDSporting CP Primeira Liga1797
- 13 SepLSanta Clara Primeira Liga1818
- 7 SepDEstoril Primeira Liga1810
- 29 AugWMaritimo Primeira Liga1812
Nacional
16th in Primeira Liga · 4 pts from 8
- 11 OctLRio Ave Primeira Liga1542
- 19 SepLFamalicao Primeira Liga1591
- 12 SepLAlverca Primeira Liga1615
- 5 SepLSporting CP Primeira Liga1635
- 30 AugLEstrela Primeira Liga1670
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 14 /8 | 46.6 | 0% | 6% | 1% | 5th |
| Nacional | 4 /8 | 28.6 | 0% | 0% | 74% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Arouca: balanced profile · Nacional: direct (how Alexandre Miguel Crispim dos Santos plays)