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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

Arouca 1–0 Estrela

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca

Arouca crestAroucaTeam 1734
1–0
Full time
HT 1–0
Estrela crestEstrelaTeam 1669

Match story

Arouca · draw · Estrela

Before kick-off: 47% · 27% · 25%

Live chances: Arouca 98%, draw 2%, Estrela 0% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Arouca 47%, draw 27%, Estrela 25%2' · 0–0 · Arouca 47%, draw 27%, Estrela 25%3' · 0–0 · Arouca 47%, draw 28%, Estrela 25%4' · 0–0 · Arouca 47%, draw 28%, Estrela 25%5' · 1–0 · Arouca 73%, draw 17%, Estrela 9%6' · 1–0 · Arouca 73%, draw 17%, Estrela 9%7' · 1–0 · Arouca 73%, draw 17%, Estrela 9%8' · 1–0 · Arouca 73%, draw 17%, Estrela 9%9' · 1–0 · Arouca 73%, draw 18%, Estrela 9%10' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 9%11' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 9%12' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 9%13' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 9%14' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 9%15' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 9%16' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 9%17' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 9%18' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%19' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%20' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%21' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%22' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%23' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%24' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%25' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%27' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%28' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%29' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%30' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%31' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 8%32' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 7%33' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 7%34' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 7%36' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 7%37' · 1–0 · Arouca 74%, draw 18%, Estrela 7%38' · 1–0 · Arouca 75%, draw 18%, Estrela 7%39' · 1–0 · Arouca 75%, draw 19%, Estrela 7%40' · 1–0 · Arouca 75%, draw 19%, Estrela 7%41' · 1–0 · Arouca 75%, draw 19%, Estrela 7%42' · 1–1 · Arouca 39%, draw 36%, Estrela 24%43' · 1–0 · Arouca 75%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%44' · 1–0 · Arouca 75%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%45' · 1–0 · Arouca 75%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%45+1' · 1–0 · Arouca 75%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%45+2' · 1–0 · Arouca 75%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%45+3' · 1–0 · Arouca 75%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%45+4' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%45+5' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%45+6' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%45+7' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%45+8' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%HT · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%47' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%48' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 19%, Estrela 6%49' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 18%, Estrela 6%50' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 18%, Estrela 5%51' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 18%, Estrela 5%52' · 1–0 · Arouca 76%, draw 18%, Estrela 5%53' · 1–0 · Arouca 77%, draw 18%, Estrela 5%54' · 1–0 · Arouca 77%, draw 18%, Estrela 5%55' · 1–0 · Arouca 77%, draw 18%, Estrela 5%56' · 1–0 · Arouca 77%, draw 18%, Estrela 5%57' · 1–0 · Arouca 77%, draw 18%, Estrela 4%58' · 1–0 · Arouca 78%, draw 18%, Estrela 4%59' · 1–0 · Arouca 78%, draw 18%, Estrela 4%60' · 1–0 · Arouca 78%, draw 18%, Estrela 4%61' · 1–0 · Arouca 78%, draw 18%, Estrela 4%62' · 1–0 · Arouca 79%, draw 18%, Estrela 4%63' · 1–0 · Arouca 79%, draw 17%, Estrela 4%64' · 1–0 · Arouca 79%, draw 17%, Estrela 4%65' · 1–0 · Arouca 80%, draw 17%, Estrela 3%66' · 1–0 · Arouca 80%, draw 17%, Estrela 3%67' · 1–0 · Arouca 80%, draw 17%, Estrela 3%68' · 1–0 · Arouca 80%, draw 17%, Estrela 3%69' · 1–0 · Arouca 81%, draw 16%, Estrela 3%70' · 1–0 · Arouca 81%, draw 16%, Estrela 3%71' · 1–0 · Arouca 82%, draw 16%, Estrela 3%72' · 1–0 · Arouca 82%, draw 16%, Estrela 2%73' · 1–0 · Arouca 82%, draw 15%, Estrela 2%74' · 1–0 · Arouca 83%, draw 15%, Estrela 2%75' · 1–0 · Arouca 83%, draw 15%, Estrela 2%76' · 1–0 · Arouca 84%, draw 15%, Estrela 2%77' · 1–0 · Arouca 84%, draw 14%, Estrela 2%78' · 1–0 · Arouca 85%, draw 14%, Estrela 2%79' · 1–0 · Arouca 85%, draw 13%, Estrela 1%80' · 1–0 · Arouca 86%, draw 13%, Estrela 1%81' · 1–0 · Arouca 86%, draw 13%, Estrela 1%82' · 1–0 · Arouca 87%, draw 12%, Estrela 1%83' · 1–0 · Arouca 87%, draw 12%, Estrela 1%84' · 1–0 · Arouca 88%, draw 11%, Estrela 1%85' · 1–0 · Arouca 89%, draw 11%, Estrela 1%86' · 1–0 · Arouca 89%, draw 10%, Estrela 1%87' · 1–0 · Arouca 90%, draw 9%, Estrela 1%88' · 1–0 · Arouca 91%, draw 9%, Estrela 0%89' · 1–0 · Arouca 92%, draw 8%, Estrela 0%90' · 1–0 · Arouca 93%, draw 7%, Estrela 0%90+1' · 1–0 · Arouca 94%, draw 6%, Estrela 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Arouca 95%, draw 5%, Estrela 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Arouca 96%, draw 4%, Estrela 0%90+4' · 1–0 · Arouca 97%, draw 3%, Estrela 0%90+5' · 1–0 · Arouca 98%, draw 2%, Estrela 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 98% · 2% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Arouca 47% to win: they did.

  1. 5'Arouca:Iván Barbero 1809 +14* assist Näis Djouahra 1841 +11*
  2. 45+4'Estrela:Ianis Stoica 1855 −9* (penalty missed)
  3. 45+6'Arouca:Pablo Gozálbez 1794 +13*
  4. 45+8'Arouca:Iván Barbero 1809 +14*
  5. 45+8'Estrela:Abraham Marcus 1916 −13*
  6. 50'Estrela:Max Scholze 1854 −9*
  7. 57'Arouca:Pedro Santos 1712 −2* for Pablo Gozálbez 1794 +13*
  8. 61'Estrela:Beni Souza 1352 −8* for Ianis Stoica 1855 −9*
  9. 62'Estrela:Jefferson Encada 1554 −8* for Max Scholze 1854 −9*
  10. 62'Arouca:Pedro Santos 1712 −2*
  11. 65'Arouca:Dylan Nandín 1639 −2* for Iván Barbero 1809 +14*
  12. 65'Arouca:Gabrijel Rukavina 1644 +7* for Näis Djouahra 1841 +11*
  13. 79'Arouca:Lee Hyun-ju 1768 −6* for Taichi Fukui 1864 0*
  14. 80'Arouca:Brian Mansilla 1476 −4* for Alfonso Trezza 1801 +2*
  15. 81'Arouca:Taichi Fukui 1864 0*
  16. 82'Estrela:Emerson Vanga 1422 −8* for Eddy Doué 1798 −8*
  17. 88'Arouca:Jose Fontán 1841 +20*
  18. 90+1'Estrela:Alisson Souza 1369 −8* for Lovro Zvonarek 1725 −8*
  19. 90+1'Estrela:Kevin Hoog Jansson 1495 −8* for Santiago Serra 1316 −8*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GLéo Linck1998−18*
DM. Scholze1854−9*
DS. Leković1862−13*
DPatrick Luan1486−1
DRafa Soares1891−14*
MEddy Doue1798−8*
MSantiago Serra1316−8*
MA. Marcus1916−13*
ML. Zvonarek1725−8*
MI. Stoica1855−9*
FL. Antonetti1515−8*
CPepa1875−13*
Before kick-off: 47% · 27% · 25%(Arouca · draw · Estrela)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–0 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Arouca €1.3M, Estrela €1.3M.
  • Style contrast in pressing & duels (Primeira Liga): Arouca ranked #18 of 18, Estrela #2.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Arouca

6th in Primeira Liga · 11 pts from 7

  • 19 SepDSporting CP 1797
  • 13 SepLSanta Clara 1818
  • 7 SepDEstoril 1810
  • 29 AugWMaritimo 1812
  • 23 AugLFC Porto 1816

Estrela

9th in Primeira Liga · 10 pts from 7

  • 20 SepLAcademico Viseu 1777
  • 14 SepDRio Ave 1749
  • 10 SepWSC Braga 1678
  • 5 SepDFamalicao 1745
  • 30 AugWNacional 1692

Season outlook

From the Primeira Liga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Arouca11 /745.50%7%2%6th
Estrela10 /741.40%2%7%9th
Arouca
Estrela

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Primeira Liga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

T. Fukui
T. Fukui

Arouca · +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1864

L. Antonetti
L. Antonetti

Estrela · +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1522

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Vasco César Freire de Seabra

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Arouca: balanced profile (how Vasco César Freire de Seabra plays) · Estrela: direct (how Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.