2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 12
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UTC
Arminia Bielefeld host 1. FC Magdeburg on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (2. Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Arminia Bielefeld 38%, draw 29%, 1. FC Magdeburg 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Arminia Bielefeld €969K, 1. FC Magdeburg €1.1M.
- Home advantage makes Arminia Bielefeld the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Arminia Bielefeld goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Arminia Bielefeld 1788 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1859
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Arminia Bielefeld · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1830
1. FC Magdeburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.7 (Good) · Elo 1925
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Arminia Bielefeld
7th in 2. Bundesliga · 14 pts from 10
- 30 OctWEintracht Braunschweig Germany 2 Bundesliga1792
- 24 OctLHertha BSC Germany 2 Bundesliga1779
- 18 OctWVfL Osnabrück Germany 2 Bundesliga1746
- 11 OctWVfL Bochum Germany 2 Bundesliga1730
- 20 SepD1. FC Heidenheim Germany 2 Bundesliga1781
1. FC Magdeburg
5th in 2. Bundesliga · 17 pts from 10
- 31 OctDSV Darmstadt 98 Germany 2 Bundesliga1859
- 28 OctLBayern München Germany DFB Pokal1889
- 24 OctWKarlsruher SC Germany 2 Bundesliga1855
- 18 OctLDynamo Dresden Germany 2 Bundesliga1838
- 10 OctWHannover 96 Germany 2 Bundesliga1797
Season outlook
From the 2. Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arminia Bielefeld | 14 /10 | 45.4 | <1% | 8% | 6% | 7th |
| 1. FC Magdeburg | 17 /10 | 52.1 | 2% | 36% | 1% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Arminia Bielefeld: balanced profile (how Oliver Kirch plays) · 1. FC Magdeburg: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Petrik Sander plays)