Serie B · Regular Season - 12
Arezzo vs Padova
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Citta di Arezzo, Arezzo
Arezzo host Padova on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Arezzo 31%, draw 29%, Padova 41%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Arezzo €340K, Padova €1.0M.
- Arezzo's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Arezzo goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–111%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 1–28%
- 0–28%
- Other scores41%
Team Elo: Arezzo 1541 · Padova 1701
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Arezzo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1685
Padova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1779
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Arezzo
14th in Serie B · 11 pts from 11
- 7 NovLJuve Stabia Italy Serie B1572
- 1 NovDAscoli Italy Serie B1581
- 28 OctLCarrarese Italy Serie B1542
- 24 OctLBenevento Italy Serie B1551
- 18 OctWSampdoria Italy Serie B1469
Padova
10th in Serie B · 15 pts from 11
- 7 NovDEmpoli Italy Serie B1702
- 31 OctDCatanzaro Italy Serie B1684
- 27 OctWSudtirol Italy Serie B1687
- 24 OctWAvellino Italy Serie B1650
- 17 OctLVirtus Entella Italy Serie B1668
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arezzo | 11 /11 | 38.7 | 0% | 0% | 53% | 20th |
| Padova | 15 /11 | 52.2 | 0% | 8% | 3% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy