Serie B · Regular Season - 10
Arezzo vs Ascoli
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Citta di Arezzo, Arezzo
Arezzo host Ascoli on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Arezzo 41%, draw 29%, Ascoli 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Arezzo €326K, Ascoli €428K.
- Home advantage makes Arezzo the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Arezzo goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Arezzo 1564 · Ascoli 1590
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Arezzo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1718
Ascoli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1636
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Arezzo
9th in Serie B · 10 pts from 7
- 18 OctWSampdoria Italy Serie B1470
- 10 OctDCremonese Italy Serie B1462
- 20 SepLSudtirol Italy Serie B1475
- 11 SepWEmpoli Italy Serie B1430
- 6 SepLHellas Verona Italy Serie B1465
Ascoli
6th in Serie B · 12 pts from 7
- 17 OctDEmpoli Italy Serie B1565
- 10 OctDSudtirol Italy Serie B1567
- 19 SepWAvellino Italy Serie B1398
- 12 SepLPadova Italy Serie B1441
- 5 SepWBenevento Italy Serie B1453
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arezzo | 10 /7 | 44.0 | 0% | 1% | 30% | 19th |
| Ascoli | 12 /7 | 46.1 | 0% | 2% | 20% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –