First League · Regular Season - 14
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Arena Arda, Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali host Septemvri Sofia on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Arda Kardzhali 53%, draw 26%, Septemvri Sofia 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Arda Kardzhali €339K, Septemvri Sofia €197K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Arda Kardzhali goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Arda Kardzhali 1503 · Septemvri Sofia 1365
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Arda Kardzhali · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1455
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Arda Kardzhali
6th in First League · 17 pts from 11
- 12 OctLLudogorets Bulgarian First League1525
- 19 SepDCherno More Varna Bulgarian First League1527
- 12 SepLCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1533
- 4 SepLBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1535
- 31 AugWBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1512
Septemvri Sofia
13th in First League · 8 pts from 11
- 11 OctLDunav Ruse Bulgarian First League1361
- 19 SepLBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1375
- 14 SepLLudogorets Bulgarian First League1372
- 4 SepLBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1390
- 28 AugDSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1349
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 17 /11 | 37.3 | 0% | 4% | <1% | 6th |
| Septemvri Sofia | 8 /11 | 23.9 | 0% | 0% | 51% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Arda Kardzhali: balanced profile (how A. Tunchev plays) · Septemvri Sofia: low-volume · direct (how Simao Freitas plays)