First League · Regular Season - 12
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Arena Arda, Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali host Levski Sofia on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Arda Kardzhali 23%, draw 27%, Levski Sofia 50%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Arda Kardzhali €333K, Levski Sofia €978K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of First League matchday 12: 255 points.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Arda Kardzhali goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 2–16%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Arda Kardzhali 1502 · Levski Sofia 1757
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Arda Kardzhali · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1455
Levski Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1823
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Arda Kardzhali
6th in First League · 17 pts from 11
- 12 OctLLudogorets Bulgarian First League1525
- 19 SepDCherno More Varna Bulgarian First League1527
- 12 SepLCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1533
- 4 SepLBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1535
- 31 AugWBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1512
Levski Sofia
1st in First League · 28 pts from 10
- 15 OctDNEC Nijmegen UEFA Europa League1778
- 11 OctWCherno More Varna Bulgarian First League1736
- 17 SepLRed Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League1788
- 13 SepDBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1749
- 5 SepWCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1753
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 17 /11 | 37.2 | 0% | 5% | <1% | 6th |
| Levski Sofia | 28 /10 | 56.6 | 37% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Arda Kardzhali: balanced profile (how Aleksandar Blagov Tunchev plays) · Levski Sofia: shot-heavy · creative (how Julio Velázquez Santiago plays)