Premyer Liqa · Regular Season - 9
Araz vs Qabala
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 11:00 UTC · Shamakhi City Stadium, Shamakhi
Araz host Qabala on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Premyer Liqa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Araz 50%, draw 27%, Qabala 24%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Araz €311K, Qabala €206K.
- T. Əhmədli, Patrick Andrade, C. Diniyev, Alxasov and I. Paro (Araz) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Araz goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Araz 1485 · Qabala 1355
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Araz from last season's line-ups (latest 2 May 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Araz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Elite) · Elo 1628
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Araz
12th in Premyer Liqa · 2 pts from 8
- 2 MayLImisli FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1527
- 18 MarWŞamaxı FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1488
- 13 MarWKarvan Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1499
- 8 MarLQarabag Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1531
- 21 FebWKarvan Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1527
Qabala
10th in Premyer Liqa · 4 pts from 8
- 29 AugDŞamaxı FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1324
- 3 MayLZira Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1328
- 5 AprWKapaz Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1291
- 15 MarLNeftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1325
- 10 MarLSabah FA Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1347
Season outlook
From the Premyer Liqa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Araz | 2 /8 | 35.3 | 0% | 1% | 35% | 9th |
| Qabala | 4 /8 | 27.4 | 0% | 0% | 85% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –