Premyer Liqa · Regular Season - 12
Araz vs Neftchi Baku
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 10:30 UTC
Araz host Neftchi Baku on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Premyer Liqa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Araz 29%, draw 29%, Neftchi Baku 42%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Araz €174K, Neftchi Baku €501K.
- T. Əhmədli, B. Letić, Patrick Andrade, M. Mara, L. Dumančić, A. Rzayev, M. Kané, A. Fernandez, A. Salyanskiy, Mustafá and Bruno (Araz) have not played for over 90 days.
- A. Gravillon, Breno, Klismahn, V. Ševelj, F. Sacko, A. Skribek, Ľ. Tupta, F. Vargas and Igor (Neftchi Baku) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Araz goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 1–08%
- 0–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Araz 1465 · Neftchi Baku 1557
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Neftchi Baku · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1657
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Araz
12th in Premyer Liqa · 4 pts from 11
- 2 MayLImisli FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1516
- 18 MarWŞamaxı FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1477
- 13 MarWKarvan Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1490
- 8 MarLQarabag Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1519
- 21 FebWKarvan Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1519
Neftchi Baku
1st in Premyer Liqa · 24 pts from 11
- 30 JulWDinamo Minsk UEFA Conference League1568
- 22 JulLDinamo Minsk UEFA Conference League1598
- 5 MayWKarvan Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1519
- 5 AprWSumqayıt Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1556
- 20 MarWImisli FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1508
Season outlook
From the Premyer Liqa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Araz | 4 /11 | 32.8 | 0% | <1% | 46% | 9th |
| Neftchi Baku | 24 /11 | 58.1 | 3% | 83% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –