Premier League · Regular Season - 11
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Football Academy Stadium, Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia host FC Noah on Mon 26 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ararat-Armenia 38%, draw 29%, FC Noah 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ararat-Armenia €304K, FC Noah €371K.
- Home advantage makes Ararat-Armenia the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Premier League: A. Serobyan is the highest-rated forward (1727).
- A. Koneglyan (FC Noah) has not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ararat-Armenia goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Ararat-Armenia 1564 · FC Noah 1609
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; FC Noah from last season's line-ups (latest 19 May 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ararat-Armenia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1727
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ararat-Armenia
2nd in Premier League · 23 pts from 10
- 15 OctLJagiellonia UEFA Europa League1597
- 16 SepLSparta Praha UEFA Europa League1599
- 27 AugWUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1569
- 20 AugDUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1557
- 11 AugLCelje UEFA Champions League1601
FC Noah
1st in Premier League · 28 pts from 10
- 13 AugLFC Sion UEFA Conference League1621
- 6 AugDFC Sion UEFA Conference League1621
- 30 JulWZimbru UEFA Conference League1616
- 23 JulDZimbru UEFA Conference League1617
- 19 MayWArarat Armenia Premier League1571
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia | 23 /10 | 57.7 | 17% | 98% | 0% | 2nd |
| FC Noah | 28 /10 | 64.4 | 74% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –