Premier League · Regular Season - 9
Ararat-Armenia 1–1 Alashkert
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Football Academy Stadium, Yerevan
Ararat-ArmeniaTeam 1585AlashkertTeam 1419We gave Ararat-Armenia 55% to win: it ended in a draw.
Before kick-off (provisional): 55% · 25% · 20%(Ararat-Armenia · draw · Alashkert)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ararat-Armenia €313K, Alashkert €218K.
- Bruno Pinto and João Queirós (Ararat-Armenia) had not played for over 90 days.
- A. Sadoyan, Caio Henrique and Y. Gareginyan (Alashkert) had not played for over 90 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ararat-Armenia
2nd in Premier League · 19 pts from 8
- 16 SepLSparta Praha UEFA Europa League1599
- 27 AugWUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1569
- 20 AugDUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1557
- 11 AugLCelje UEFA Champions League1601
- 4 AugWCelje UEFA Champions League1580
Alashkert
4th in Premier League · 15 pts from 8
- 30 JulLCFR 1907 Cluj UEFA Conference League1423
- 23 JulDCFR 1907 Cluj UEFA Conference League1433
- 16 JulDYelimay Semey UEFA Conference League1427
- 9 JulDYelimay Semey UEFA Conference League1405
- 2 MayDBKMA Armenia Premier League1433
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia | 19 /8 | 58.5 | 28% | 99% | 0% | 2nd |
| Alashkert | 15 /8 | 44.0 | <1% | 47% | <1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ararat-Armenia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.7 (Good) · Elo 1734
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –