Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7
Angers 2–5 Marseille
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers
AngersTeam 1815MarseilleTeam 2057- Lillian Rao-Lisoa 14'
- Amine El Ouazzani 75' (pen)
- Himad Abdelli 37'
- Nouhoum Kamissoko 43'
- Amine Gouiri 60'
- Amine Harit 83'
- Igor Paixão 85'
We gave Marseille 49% to win: they did.
- Lillian Rao-Lisoa –14'Angers:Lillian Rao-Lisoa –
- 37'Himad Abdelli – assist Timothy Weah –Marseille:Himad Abdelli – assist Timothy Weah –
- 43'Nouhoum Kamissoko assist Emerson Palmieri –Marseille:Nouhoum Kamissoko assist Emerson Palmieri –
- Prosper Peter – for Louis Mouton –57'Angers:Prosper Peter – for Louis Mouton –
- 59'Amine Gouiri – (penalty missed)Marseille:Amine Gouiri – (penalty missed)
- 60'Amine Gouiri –Marseille:Amine Gouiri –
- 60'Nayef Aguerd – for Geoffrey Kondogbia –Marseille:Nayef Aguerd – for Geoffrey Kondogbia –
- Emmanuel Biumla –68'Angers:Emmanuel Biumla –
- Joseph Kalulu – for Emmanuel Biumla –72'Angers:Joseph Kalulu – for Emmanuel Biumla –
- Harouna Djibirin – for Jim Allevinah –72'Angers:Harouna Djibirin – for Jim Allevinah –
- 74'Tochukwu Nnadi –Marseille:Tochukwu Nnadi –
- Amine El Ouazzani – (pen.)75'Angers:Amine El Ouazzani – (pen.)
- 80'Keyliane Abdallah – for Himad Abdelli –Marseille:Keyliane Abdallah – for Himad Abdelli –
- 80'Angel Gomes – for Nouhoum KamissokoMarseille:Angel Gomes – for Nouhoum Kamissoko
- 83'Amine Harit – assist Tochukwu Nnadi –Marseille:Amine Harit – assist Tochukwu Nnadi –
- 85'Igor Paixão – assist Timothy Weah –Marseille:Igor Paixão – assist Timothy Weah –
- Anthony Bermont – for Amine Sbaï –89'Angers:Anthony Bermont – for Amine Sbaï –
- Bané Diatta – for Amine El Ouazzani –89'Angers:Bané Diatta – for Amine El Ouazzani –
- 90'Ulisses Garcia – for Amine Harit –Marseille:Ulisses Garcia – for Amine Harit –
- 90'Neal Maupay – for Tochukwu Nnadi –Marseille:Neal Maupay – for Tochukwu Nnadi –
Before kick-off (provisional): 24% · 27% · 49%(Angers · draw · Marseille)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–5 had <1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Angers €2.8M, Marseille €13.0M.
- Angers were without 1 expected starter: J. Lefort (1884).
- Largest team-Elo gap of Ligue 1 matchday 7: 242 points.
- Style contrast in attacking (Ligue 1): Angers ranked #18 of 18, Marseille #2.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Angers
13th in Ligue 1 · 7 pts from 6
- 10 OctLStade Brestois 29 Ligue 11821
- 19 SepWEstac Troyes Ligue 11848
- 12 SepDLe Havre Ligue 11846
- 6 SepLRennes Ligue 11877
- 29 AugWAuxerre Ligue 11841
Marseille
14th in Ligue 1 · 6 pts from 6
- 15 OctLOlympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League2030
- 11 OctWEstac Troyes Ligue 12094
- 20 SepLParis Saint Germain Ligue 12118
- 17 SepLBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League2048
- 11 SepLRennes Ligue 12149
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 7 /6 | 34.3 | 0% | 0% | 34% | 15th |
| Marseille | 6 /6 | 51.0 | 0% | 15% | <1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Angers · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1845
Marseille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2160
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Angers: low-volume (how Stéphane Gilli plays) · Marseille: possession-based (how Bruno Génésio plays)