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Serie B · Regular Season - 34

America Mineiro 1–0 Operario-PR

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Arena Independência, Bello Harisanta

America Mineiro crestAmerica MineiroTeam 1444
1–0
Full time
HT 0–0
Operario-PR crestOperario-PRTeam 1577

Match story

America Mineiro · draw · Operario-PR

Before kick-off: 34% · 31% · 34%

Live chances: America Mineiro 100%, draw 0%, Operario-PR 0% at 90+7'2' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 32%, Operario-PR 34%3' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 32%, Operario-PR 34%4' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 32%, Operario-PR 34%5' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 32%, Operario-PR 34%6' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 32%, Operario-PR 34%7' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 32%, Operario-PR 34%8' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 32%, Operario-PR 34%9' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 32%, Operario-PR 34%10' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 32%, Operario-PR 34%11' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 33%, Operario-PR 34%12' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 33%, Operario-PR 33%13' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 33%, Operario-PR 33%14' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 33%, Operario-PR 33%15' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 34%, draw 33%, Operario-PR 33%16' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 33%, Operario-PR 33%17' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 33%, Operario-PR 33%18' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 34%, Operario-PR 33%19' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 34%, Operario-PR 33%20' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 34%, Operario-PR 33%21' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 34%, Operario-PR 33%22' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 34%, Operario-PR 33%23' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 34%, Operario-PR 33%24' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 35%, Operario-PR 33%25' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 35%, Operario-PR 32%26' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 35%, Operario-PR 32%27' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 33%, draw 35%, Operario-PR 32%28' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 32%, draw 35%, Operario-PR 32%29' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 32%, draw 36%, Operario-PR 32%30' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 32%, draw 36%, Operario-PR 32%31' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 32%, draw 36%, Operario-PR 32%32' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 32%, draw 36%, Operario-PR 32%33' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 32%, draw 36%, Operario-PR 32%34' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 32%, draw 37%, Operario-PR 31%35' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 32%, draw 37%, Operario-PR 31%36' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 32%, draw 37%, Operario-PR 31%37' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 31%, draw 37%, Operario-PR 31%38' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 31%, draw 38%, Operario-PR 31%39' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 31%, draw 38%, Operario-PR 31%40' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 31%, draw 38%, Operario-PR 31%41' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 31%, draw 39%, Operario-PR 31%42' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 31%, draw 39%, Operario-PR 30%43' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 31%, draw 39%, Operario-PR 30%44' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 30%, draw 40%, Operario-PR 30%45' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 30%, draw 40%, Operario-PR 30%45+1' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 30%, draw 40%, Operario-PR 30%45+2' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 30%, draw 41%, Operario-PR 30%45+3' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 30%, draw 41%, Operario-PR 29%HT · 0–0 · America Mineiro 30%, draw 41%, Operario-PR 29%47' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 29%, draw 41%, Operario-PR 29%48' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 29%, draw 42%, Operario-PR 29%49' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 29%, draw 42%, Operario-PR 29%50' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 29%, draw 43%, Operario-PR 29%51' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 28%, draw 43%, Operario-PR 28%52' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 28%, draw 44%, Operario-PR 28%53' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 28%, draw 44%, Operario-PR 28%54' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 28%, draw 45%, Operario-PR 27%55' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 27%, draw 45%, Operario-PR 27%56' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 27%, draw 46%, Operario-PR 27%57' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 27%, draw 47%, Operario-PR 27%58' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 26%, draw 47%, Operario-PR 26%59' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 26%, draw 48%, Operario-PR 26%60' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 26%, draw 49%, Operario-PR 26%61' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 25%, draw 49%, Operario-PR 25%62' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 25%, draw 50%, Operario-PR 25%63' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 25%, draw 51%, Operario-PR 25%64' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 24%, draw 51%, Operario-PR 24%65' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 24%, draw 52%, Operario-PR 24%66' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 24%, draw 53%, Operario-PR 23%67' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 23%, draw 54%, Operario-PR 23%68' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 23%, draw 54%, Operario-PR 23%69' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 22%, draw 55%, Operario-PR 22%70' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 22%, draw 56%, Operario-PR 22%71' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 22%, draw 57%, Operario-PR 21%72' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 21%, draw 58%, Operario-PR 21%73' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 21%, draw 59%, Operario-PR 20%74' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 20%, draw 60%, Operario-PR 20%75' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 20%, draw 61%, Operario-PR 19%76' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 19%, draw 62%, Operario-PR 19%77' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 18%, draw 63%, Operario-PR 18%78' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 18%, draw 64%, Operario-PR 18%79' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 17%, draw 66%, Operario-PR 17%80' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 17%, draw 67%, Operario-PR 17%81' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 16%, draw 68%, Operario-PR 16%82' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 15%, draw 70%, Operario-PR 15%83' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 15%, draw 71%, Operario-PR 14%84' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 14%, draw 72%, Operario-PR 14%85' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 13%, draw 74%, Operario-PR 13%86' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 12%, draw 76%, Operario-PR 12%87' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 11%, draw 77%, Operario-PR 11%88' · 0–0 · America Mineiro 10%, draw 79%, Operario-PR 10%89' · 1–0 · America Mineiro 90%, draw 9%, Operario-PR 1%90' · 1–0 · America Mineiro 91%, draw 8%, Operario-PR 0%90+1' · 1–0 · America Mineiro 92%, draw 7%, Operario-PR 0%90+2' · 1–0 · America Mineiro 94%, draw 6%, Operario-PR 0%90+3' · 1–0 · America Mineiro 95%, draw 5%, Operario-PR 0%90+4' · 1–0 · America Mineiro 96%, draw 4%, Operario-PR 0%90+5' · 1–0 · America Mineiro 98%, draw 2%, Operario-PR 0%90+6' · 1–0 · America Mineiro 99%, draw 1%, Operario-PR 0%90+7' · 1–0 · America Mineiro 100%, draw 0%, Operario-PR 0%

Last reading, 90+7': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave America Mineiro 34% to win: they did.

  1. 19'America Mineiro:Tobias Ostchega 1572 +7
  2. 42'Operario-PR:Caio Dantas 1460 −5
  3. 42'America Mineiro:Jorge Jiménez 1462 +9
  4. 45'Operario-PR:Brenno for Hildeberto Pereira 1614 −5
  5. 57'America Mineiro:Matías Segovia 1501 +14
  6. 60'America Mineiro:Barreto 1569 +25
  7. 61'Operario-PR:Dudu for Pedrinho 1518 0
  8. 64'America Mineiro:William Arthur Assmann 1200
  9. 71'Operario-PR:Onitlasi Júnior de Moraes Rodrigues 1666 −3 for Gabriel Feliciano da Silva 1632 −14
  10. 71'Operario-PR:João Gabriel Rodrigues Botao – for Mikael Doka 1655 −6
  11. 76'America Mineiro:Luidy Montes Carneiro 1336 +4 for Tobias Ostchega 1572 +7
  12. 79'America Mineiro:Fernando Elizari 1311 −5 for Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus 1506 +12
  13. 80'America Mineiro:Felipe 1554 +1 for Jorge Jiménez 1462 +9
  14. 82'Operario-PR:Aylon 1469 −6 for Juan Zuluaga 1517 −5
  15. 82'America Mineiro:Otavio Goncalves for Rafael Raul Barcelos 1477 +22
  16. 83'America Mineiro:Marcelo Enrique Maçola Filho 1308 +2 for Willian 1243 +72
  17. 88'America Mineiro:Guilherme Parede 1603 +19 assist Barreto 1569 +25
  18. 90+3'Operario-PR:Aylon 1469 −6

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GBruno Brígido1510+35
DRafael Barcelos1477+22
DRicardo Silva1564+23
DL. Sosa1574+23
DT. Ostchega1572+7
MBarreto1569+25
MJ. Jiménez1462+9
MPaulo Victor1506+12
MM. Segovia1501+14
MGuilherme Parede1603+19
FWillian1243+72
CMoacir Júnior1490+28
GElias Martello Curzel1626−15*
DMikael Doka1655−6
DJ. Cuenú1665−28
DJoseph1635−23
DGabriel Feliciano1632−14
MJ. Zuluaga1517−5
MÍndio1412−6
MHildeberto Pereira1614−5
MVinícius Diniz1637−7
MPedro Vilhena15180
FCaio Dantas1460−5
CAlberto Valentim1672−17
Before kick-off: 34% · 31% · 34%(America Mineiro · draw · Operario-PR)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (15%); the result 1–0 had 11%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: America Mineiro €240K, Operario-PR €300K.
  • Home advantage made America Mineiro the favourite: it added 11 points to their win chance.
  • Style contrast in pressing & duels (Serie B): America Mineiro ranked #21 of 23, Operario-PR #3.
  • America Mineiro's expected eleven was out of form: average -1.4 over 180 days.
  • All 11 of Operario-PR's expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

America Mineiro

19th in Serie B · 17 pts from 33

  • 12 OctLCriciuma 1466
  • 7 OctLFortaleza EC 1442
  • 3 OctLAtletico Goianiense 1422
  • 28 SepLJuventude 1453
  • 18 SepLVila Nova 1468

Operario-PR

10th in Serie B · 48 pts from 33

  • 11 OctLGoias 1568
  • 7 OctLBotafogo SP 1608
  • 2 OctLJuventude 1659
  • 26 SepDCeara 1653
  • 22 SepWCriciuma 1650

Season outlook

From the Serie B simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
America Mineiro17 /3322.60%0%100%19th
Operario-PR48 /3354.50%<1%0%11th
America Mineiro
Operario-PR

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie B

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

M. Segovia
M. Segovia

America Mineiro · +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1487

Vinícius Diniz
Vinícius Diniz

Operario-PR · +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1644

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Moacir Vieira Araújo Júnior

Coach DNA: –

Alberto Valentim do Carmo Neto

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

America Mineiro: possession-based (how Moacir Vieira Araújo Júnior plays) · Operario-PR: balanced profile (how Alberto Valentim do Carmo Neto plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.