Serie B · Regular Season - 38
America Mineiro vs Avai
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Arena Independência, Belo Horizonte
America Mineiro host Avai on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: America Mineiro 36%, draw 29%, Avai 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: America Mineiro €243K, Avai €348K.
- Home advantage makes America Mineiro the favourite here: it adds 11 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. America Mineiro goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: America Mineiro 1506 · Avai 1633
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
America Mineiro · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1260
Avai · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.9 (Good) · Elo 1715
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
America Mineiro
19th in Serie B · 23 pts from 35
- 26 OctWCuiaba Brazil Serie B1514
- 17 OctWOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1481
- 12 OctLCriciuma Brazil Serie B1466
- 7 OctLFortaleza EC Brazil Serie B1442
- 3 OctLAtletico Goianiense Brazil Serie B1422
Avai
17th in Serie B · 37 pts from 35
- 24 OctLBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1659
- 18 OctDAthletic Club Brazil Serie B1651
- 11 OctWCuiaba Brazil Serie B1624
- 7 OctWLondrina Brazil Serie B1600
- 3 OctLCeara Brazil Serie B1564
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro | 23 /35 | 26.3 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 19th |
| Avai | 37 /35 | 41.1 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
America Mineiro: possession-based (how Moacir Júnior plays) · Avai: balanced profile (how Allan Aal plays)