Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 11
Alverca vs Casa Pia
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 18:00 UTC · FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo
Alverca host Casa Pia on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Alverca 49%, draw 27%, Casa Pia 24%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Alverca €1.4M, Casa Pia €974K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Alverca goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Alverca 1755 · Casa Pia 1669
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Alverca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1925
Casa Pia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1687
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Alverca
8th in Primeira Liga · 11 pts from 8
- 12 OctWFamalicao Primeira Liga1722
- 19 SepWRio Ave Primeira Liga1685
- 12 SepWNacional Primeira Liga1633
- 5 SepLSC Braga Primeira Liga1680
- 29 AugDSanta Clara Primeira Liga1673
Casa Pia
17th in Primeira Liga · 4 pts from 8
- 10 OctLSanta Clara Primeira Liga1664
- 20 SepWEstoril Primeira Liga1630
- 12 SepLFC Porto Primeira Liga1631
- 6 SepDVitória SC Primeira Liga1646
- 30 AugLMoreirense Primeira Liga1654
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 11 /8 | 43.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 8th |
| Casa Pia | 4 /8 | 31.4 | 0% | 0% | 57% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Alverca: balanced profile (how Sergio Ferreira plays) · Casa Pia: direct · low-volume (how Filipe Coelho plays)