Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 9
Alverca vs Arouca
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UTC · FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo
Alverca host Arouca on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Alverca 41%, draw 29%, Arouca 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Alverca €1.3M, Arouca €1.4M.
- Home advantage makes Alverca the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Draw chance 29%, above the Primeira Liga average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Alverca goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Alverca 1756 · Arouca 1766
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Alverca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1925
Arouca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1864
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Alverca
8th in Primeira Liga · 11 pts from 8
- 12 OctWFamalicao Primeira Liga1722
- 19 SepWRio Ave Primeira Liga1685
- 12 SepWNacional Primeira Liga1633
- 5 SepLSC Braga Primeira Liga1680
- 29 AugDSanta Clara Primeira Liga1673
Arouca
5th in Primeira Liga · 14 pts from 8
- 11 OctWEstrela Primeira Liga1815
- 19 SepDSporting CP Primeira Liga1797
- 13 SepLSanta Clara Primeira Liga1818
- 7 SepDEstoril Primeira Liga1810
- 29 AugWMaritimo Primeira Liga1812
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 11 /8 | 43.8 | 0% | 2% | 3% | 7th |
| Arouca | 14 /8 | 46.6 | 0% | 6% | 1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Alverca: balanced profile (how Sergio Ferreira plays) · Arouca: balanced profile