Primera Nacional · Regular Season - 35
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento, Isidro Casanova
Almirante Brown host Deportivo Moron on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Primera Nacional); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Almirante Brown 38%, draw 29%, Deportivo Moron 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Almirante Brown €124K, Deportivo Moron €217K.
- Home advantage makes Almirante Brown the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- G. Alegre Rojas and U. Abreliano (Almirante Brown) have not played for over 90 days.
- J. Salvá, M. Bíttolo, B. Salvareschi, J. Olivares, F. Fagundez, M. Burruchaga, G. Berterame, E. Contreras, J. Livera and S. Kubiszyn (Deportivo Moron) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Almirante Brown goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Almirante Brown 1448 · Deportivo Moron 1511
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Almirante Brown · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1527
Deportivo Moron · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1741
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Almirante Brown
7th in Primera Nacional · 48 pts from 34
- 26 SepLAcassuso Argentine Primera Nacional1415
- 11 JulDAll Boys Argentine Primera Nacional1413
- 4 JulWLos Andes Argentine Primera Nacional1437
- 7 JunLDeportivo Moron Argentine Primera Nacional1472
- 30 MayDColon Santa Fe Argentine Primera Nacional1475
Deportivo Moron
3rd in Primera Nacional · 58 pts from 34
- 11 JulDDeportivo Madryn Argentine Primera Nacional1521
- 4 JulLDefensores De Belgrano Argentine Primera Nacional1545
- 7 JunWAlmirante Brown Argentine Primera Nacional1526
- 31 MayWAtletico Mitre Argentine Primera Nacional1500
- 24 MayWCA Estudiantes Argentine Primera Nacional1492
Season outlook
From the Primera Nacional simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almirante Brown | 48 /34 | 50.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17th |
| Deportivo Moron | 58 /34 | 61.0 | 0% | 30% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 36th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –