Segunda División · Regular Season - 9
Almeria 3–0 Leganes
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:15 UTC · UD Almería Stadium, Almeria
AlmeriaTeam 1866LeganesTeam 1769Match story
Almeria · draw · LeganesBefore kick-off: 53% · 26% · 21%
Last reading, 90+5': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Miguel De La Fuente 52', 57'
- Daijiro Chirino 61'
We gave Almeria 53% to win: they did.
- 13'Marvelous Antolín Garzón 1824 −5Leganes:Marvelous Antolín Garzón 1824 −5
- Miguel De La Fuente 1896 +11 for Thalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo 1779 +1945'Almeria:Miguel De La Fuente 1896 +11 for Thalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo 1779 +19
- Miguel De La Fuente 1896 +11 assist Stefan Džodić 1867 +2852'Almeria:Miguel De La Fuente 1896 +11 assist Stefan Džodić 1867 +28
- Miguel De La Fuente 1896 +11 assist Brian Cipenga 1939 +1657'Almeria:Miguel De La Fuente 1896 +11 assist Brian Cipenga 1939 +16
- Daijiro Chirino 1840 +24 assist Quim junyent 1779 +3161'Almeria:Daijiro Chirino 1840 +24 assist Quim junyent 1779 +31
- 63'Yassine Kechta 1830 −2 for Miguel Atienza 1852 −8Leganes:Yassine Kechta 1830 −2 for Miguel Atienza 1852 −8
- 63'Francisco Montero 1862 −4 for Marvelous Antolín Garzón 1824 −5Leganes:Francisco Montero 1862 −4 for Marvelous Antolín Garzón 1824 −5
- 64'Patrick Soko 1738 −1 for Ismael Gharbi 1887 −10Leganes:Patrick Soko 1738 −1 for Ismael Gharbi 1887 −10
- 64'Enric Franquesa 1759 −9* for Álvaro Tejero 1829 −8Leganes:Enric Franquesa 1759 −9* for Álvaro Tejero 1829 −8
- 66'Yassine Kechta 1830 −2Leganes:Yassine Kechta 1830 −2
- 67'Enric Franquesa 1759 −9*Leganes:Enric Franquesa 1759 −9*
- 71'Álex Millán 1697 −8* for Álvaro Morata 1907 −18Leganes:Álex Millán 1697 −8* for Álvaro Morata 1907 −18
- Marcos Luna 1842 +6 for Daijiro Chirino 1840 +2471'Almeria:Marcos Luna 1842 +6 for Daijiro Chirino 1840 +24
- Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo 1794 −5* for Quim junyent 1779 +3171'Almeria:Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo 1794 −5* for Quim junyent 1779 +31
- Javier Muñoz Jiménez 1893 +574'Almeria:Javier Muñoz Jiménez 1893 +5
- 77'Francisco Montero 1862 −4Leganes:Francisco Montero 1862 −4
- Jon Morcillo 1767 −7* for Brian Cipenga 1939 +1681'Almeria:Jon Morcillo 1767 −7* for Brian Cipenga 1939 +16
- Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo 1794 −5*82'Almeria:Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo 1794 −5*
- Léo Baptistão 1743 −6 for Javier Muñoz Jiménez 1893 +586'Almeria:Léo Baptistão 1743 −6 for Javier Muñoz Jiménez 1893 +5
- 90'Álex Millán 1697 −8*Leganes:Álex Millán 1697 −8*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 53% · 26% · 21%(Almeria · draw · Leganes)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–0 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Almeria €1.2M, Leganes €1.3M.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Segunda División): Almeria ranked #1 of 24, Leganes #23.
- Almeria had won their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Almeria
3rd in Segunda División · 18 pts from 8
- 3 OctWBurgos Spain Segunda Division1848
- 27 SepWMallorca Spain Segunda Division1808
- 20 SepWCelta de Vigo II Spain Segunda Division1821
- 12 SepWCordoba Spain Segunda Division1808
- 6 SepWCadiz Spain Segunda Division1787
Leganes
15th in Segunda División · 11 pts from 8
- 3 OctLCadiz Spain Segunda Division1841
- 28 SepLCastellón Spain Segunda Division1838
- 20 SepWGranada CF Spain Segunda Division1799
- 13 SepLTenerife Spain Segunda Division1831
- 4 SepDLas Palmas Spain Segunda Division1844
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria | 18 /8 | 71.3 | 12% | 55% | 0% | 4th |
| Leganes | 11 /8 | 60.8 | 1% | 9% | 1% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Almeria · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1839
Leganes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1860
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Almeria: creative · shot-heavy (how Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco plays) · Leganes: balanced profile (how Rubén Albés Yáñez plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.