Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 15
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Yanmar Stadion, Almere
Almere City FC host Helmond Sport on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Almere City FC 63%, draw 22%, Helmond Sport 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Almere City FC €584K, Helmond Sport €273K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Eerste Divisie matchday 15: 262 points.
- Draw chance 22%, below the Eerste Divisie average of 28% this round.
- Eerste Divisie: M. de Haan is the highest-rated midfielder (1836).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Almere City FC goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.6 pts
Team Elo: Almere City FC 1772 · Helmond Sport 1510
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Almere City FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1818
Helmond Sport · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1521
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Almere City FC
4th in Eerste Divisie · 22 pts from 12
- 27 OctWTelstar Netherlands KNVB Beker1756
- 23 OctLRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1764
- 17 OctLEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1772
- 9 OctWFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1770
- 3 OctWFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1761
Helmond Sport
19th in Eerste Divisie · 9 pts from 12
- 27 OctLWillem II Netherlands KNVB Beker1461
- 23 OctLJong AZ Netherlands Eerste Divisie1487
- 16 OctLNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1518
- 9 OctLFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1497
- 2 OctDHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1532
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC | 22 /12 | 66.8 | 22% | 75% | 0% | 2nd |
| Helmond Sport | 9 /12 | 37.6 | 0% | 0% | 63% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Almere City FC: direct (how Anoush Dastgir plays) · Helmond Sport: balanced profile (how Frédéric Frans plays)