Primera A · Clausura - 18
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros
Mon 9 Nov 2026 · 01:15 UTC · Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar host Llaneros on Mon 9 Nov 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Alianza Valledupar 45%, draw 28%, Llaneros 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Alianza Valledupar €244K, Llaneros €240K.
- Home advantage makes Alianza Valledupar the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance.
- Alianza Valledupar's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Alianza Valledupar goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Alianza Valledupar 1526 · Llaneros 1555
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Alianza Valledupar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1564
Llaneros · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1578
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Alianza Valledupar
17th in Primera A · 17 pts from 19
- 20 OctWDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1495
- 9 OctDÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1505
- 3 OctLDeportivo Cali Colombia Primera A1524
- 27 SepWJaguares Colombia Primera A1502
- 19 SepLSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1514
Llaneros
14th in Primera A · 22 pts from 19
- 21 OctLDeportivo Cali Colombia Primera A1550
- 18 OctWSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1551
- 10 OctLOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1536
- 5 OctLAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1538
- 26 SepLCucuta Colombia Primera A1571
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Valledupar | 17 /19 | 22.2 | 0% | 0% | 47% | 18th |
| Llaneros | 22 /19 | 27.5 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Alianza Valledupar: balanced profile (how C. Ayala plays) · Llaneros: balanced profile (how J. García plays)