La Liga · Regular Season - 10
Alaves vs Malaga
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Alaves host Malaga on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Alaves 52%, draw 26%, Malaga 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Alaves €3.0M, Malaga €2.2M.
- Style contrast in dribbling (La Liga): Alaves rank #19 of 20, Malaga #3.
- All 11 of Alaves' expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Alaves goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.0 pts
Team Elo: Alaves 1921 · Malaga 1840
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Alaves · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1963
Malaga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1911
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Alaves
7th in La Liga · 11 pts from 9
- 18 OctLCelta Vigo La Liga1979
- 10 OctLAtletico Madrid La Liga1964
- 19 SepDAthletic Club La Liga1924
- 15 SepLValencia La Liga1966
- 12 SepLRacing Santander La Liga1947
Malaga
20th in La Liga · 4 pts from 9
- 18 OctLReal Sociedad La Liga1869
- 9 OctDEspanyol La Liga1855
- 20 SepLGetafe La Liga1791
- 17 SepLVillarreal La Liga1865
- 13 SepDCelta Vigo La Liga1871
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 11 /9 | 40.2 | 0% | 0% | 18% | 14th |
| Malaga | 4 /9 | 29.0 | 0% | 0% | 83% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Alaves: direct (how Enrique Sánchez Flores plays) · Malaga: dribble-heavy (how Juan Francisco Funes Arjona plays)