La Liga · Regular Season - 13
Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Alaves host Deportivo La Coruna on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Alaves 39%, draw 29%, Deportivo La Coruna 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Alaves €2.9M, Deportivo La Coruna €3.3M.
- Home advantage makes Alaves the favourite here: it adds 10 points to their win chance; La Liga has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Style contrast in discipline (La Liga): Alaves rank #18 of 20, Deportivo La Coruna #1.
- All 11 of Alaves' expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Alaves goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Alaves 1918 · Deportivo La Coruna 1990
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Alaves · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1980
Deportivo La Coruna · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2087
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Alaves
12th in La Liga · 13 pts from 12
- 6 NovDSevilla La Liga1941
- 31 OctLBarcelona La Liga1922
- 23 OctDMalaga La Liga1922
- 18 OctLCelta Vigo La Liga1974
- 10 OctLAtletico Madrid La Liga1956
Deportivo La Coruna
9th in La Liga · 15 pts from 12
- 7 NovDEspanyol La Liga2012
- 2 NovWOsasuna La Liga1993
- 24 OctLAtletico Madrid La Liga1977
- 16 OctDLevante La Liga1938
- 11 OctLReal Sociedad La Liga1946
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 13 /12 | 38.3 | 0% | 0% | 28% | 18th |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 15 /12 | 43.9 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Alaves: direct (how Quique Sánchez Flores plays) · Deportivo La Coruna: possession-based (how Antonio Hidalgo plays)