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La Liga · Regular Season - 8

Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:15 UTC · Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz

Alaves crestAlavesTeam 1912
1–2
Full time
HT 1–1
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico MadridTeam 2345

Match story

Alaves · draw · Atletico Madrid

Before kick-off: 16% · 23% · 61%

Live chances: Alaves 0%, draw 0%, Atletico Madrid 100% at 90+6'2' · 0–0 · Alaves 16%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 61%3' · 0–0 · Alaves 16%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 61%4' · 0–0 · Alaves 16%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 61%5' · 0–0 · Alaves 16%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 60%6' · 0–0 · Alaves 16%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 60%7' · 0–0 · Alaves 16%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 60%8' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 60%9' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 60%10' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 59%11' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 59%12' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 59%13' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 59%14' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 58%15' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 58%16' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 58%17' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 58%18' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 57%19' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 57%20' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 57%21' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 57%22' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 56%23' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 56%24' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 56%25' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 55%26' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 55%27' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 55%28' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 55%29' · 0–0 · Alaves 17%, draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 54%30' · 0–0 · Alaves 18%, draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 54%31' · 0–0 · Alaves 18%, draw 29%, Atletico Madrid 54%32' · 0–0 · Alaves 18%, draw 29%, Atletico Madrid 53%33' · 0–0 · Alaves 18%, draw 29%, Atletico Madrid 53%34' · 0–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%35' · 0–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%36' · 0–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%37' · 0–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%38' · 0–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%39' · 0–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%40' · 0–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%41' · 0–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%42' · 0–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%43' · 0–1 · Alaves 5%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%44' · 0–1 · Alaves 5%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%45' · 0–1 · Alaves 5%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 78%45+1' · 0–1 · Alaves 5%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 79%45+2' · 0–1 · Alaves 5%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 79%45+3' · 0–1 · Alaves 5%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 79%45+4' · 0–1 · Alaves 5%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 79%45+5' · 0–1 · Alaves 5%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 79%45+6' · 0–1 · Alaves 5%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid 79%45+7' · 1–1 · Alaves 18%, draw 35%, Atletico Madrid 47%HT · 1–1 · Alaves 18%, draw 35%, Atletico Madrid 47%46' · 1–1 · Alaves 18%, draw 35%, Atletico Madrid 47%47' · 1–1 · Alaves 18%, draw 35%, Atletico Madrid 47%48' · 1–1 · Alaves 18%, draw 36%, Atletico Madrid 46%49' · 1–1 · Alaves 18%, draw 36%, Atletico Madrid 46%50' · 1–1 · Alaves 18%, draw 37%, Atletico Madrid 45%51' · 1–1 · Alaves 18%, draw 37%, Atletico Madrid 45%52' · 1–1 · Alaves 18%, draw 38%, Atletico Madrid 44%53' · 1–1 · Alaves 17%, draw 39%, Atletico Madrid 44%54' · 1–1 · Alaves 17%, draw 39%, Atletico Madrid 43%55' · 1–1 · Alaves 17%, draw 40%, Atletico Madrid 43%56' · 1–1 · Alaves 17%, draw 41%, Atletico Madrid 42%57' · 1–1 · Alaves 17%, draw 42%, Atletico Madrid 41%58' · 1–1 · Alaves 17%, draw 42%, Atletico Madrid 41%59' · 1–1 · Alaves 17%, draw 43%, Atletico Madrid 40%60' · 1–1 · Alaves 17%, draw 44%, Atletico Madrid 39%61' · 1–1 · Alaves 17%, draw 44%, Atletico Madrid 39%62' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 39%, Atletico Madrid 52%63' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 40%, Atletico Madrid 51%64' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 41%, Atletico Madrid 50%65' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 42%, Atletico Madrid 49%66' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 43%, Atletico Madrid 48%67' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 44%, Atletico Madrid 47%68' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 45%, Atletico Madrid 46%69' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 46%, Atletico Madrid 45%70' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 47%, Atletico Madrid 44%71' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 48%, Atletico Madrid 43%72' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 49%, Atletico Madrid 42%73' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 50%, Atletico Madrid 41%74' · 1–1 · Alaves 9%, draw 51%, Atletico Madrid 40%75' · 1–1 · Alaves 8%, draw 53%, Atletico Madrid 39%76' · 1–1 · Alaves 8%, draw 54%, Atletico Madrid 38%77' · 1–1 · Alaves 8%, draw 55%, Atletico Madrid 37%78' · 1–1 · Alaves 8%, draw 57%, Atletico Madrid 35%79' · 1–1 · Alaves 8%, draw 58%, Atletico Madrid 34%80' · 1–1 · Alaves 7%, draw 60%, Atletico Madrid 33%81' · 1–1 · Alaves 7%, draw 62%, Atletico Madrid 31%82' · 1–1 · Alaves 7%, draw 63%, Atletico Madrid 30%83' · 1–1 · Alaves 7%, draw 65%, Atletico Madrid 28%84' · 1–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 67%, Atletico Madrid 27%85' · 1–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 69%, Atletico Madrid 25%86' · 1–1 · Alaves 6%, draw 71%, Atletico Madrid 23%87' · 1–2 · Alaves 0%, draw 6%, Atletico Madrid 94%88' · 1–2 · Alaves 0%, draw 6%, Atletico Madrid 94%89' · 1–2 · Alaves 0%, draw 5%, Atletico Madrid 95%90' · 1–2 · Alaves 0%, draw 5%, Atletico Madrid 95%90+1' · 1–2 · Alaves 0%, draw 4%, Atletico Madrid 96%90+2' · 1–2 · Alaves 0%, draw 4%, Atletico Madrid 96%90+3' · 1–2 · Alaves 0%, draw 3%, Atletico Madrid 97%90+4' · 1–2 · Alaves 0%, draw 2%, Atletico Madrid 98%90+5' · 1–2 · Alaves 0%, draw 1%, Atletico Madrid 99%90+6' · 1–2 · Alaves 0%, draw 0%, Atletico Madrid 100%

Last reading, 90+6': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Atletico Madrid 61% to win: they did.

  1. 33'Atletico Madrid:Alejandro Grimaldo 2355 +12* assist Jonathan David 2294 +5*
  2. 45'Atletico Madrid:Ademola Lookman 2336 −5*
  3. 45'Atletico Madrid:Alejandro Baena Rodríguez 2519 +6 for Jonathan David 2294 +5*
  4. 45'Atletico Madrid:Julián Álvarez 2362 −4* for Ademola Lookman 2336 −5*
  5. 45+1'Atletico Madrid:Robin Le Normand 2387 +3
  6. 45+6'Alaves:Lucas Boyé 1955 −13* (pen.)
  7. 57'Atletico Madrid:Lee Kang-In 2402 −5* for Pablo Barrios Rivas 2379 +5*
  8. 61'Alaves:Angel Pérez Hidalgo 1795 −8*
  9. 62'Atletico Madrid:Dávid Hancko 2444 +4 for Robin Le Normand 2387 +3
  10. 64'Alaves:Carlos Protesoni 1882 −9* for Antonio Blanco 2037 −14*
  11. 64'Alaves:Mariano Díaz 1712 −5 for Toni Martínez 1986 −13*
  12. 64'Alaves:Ander Guevara 1882 −9* for Lucas Boyé 1955 −13*
  13. 71'Alaves:Ville Koski 1970 −9* for Nicolas Valentini 1859 −8*
  14. 73'Atletico Madrid:Alexander Sørloth 2376 −9* for Giuliano Simeone Baldini 2437 −3*
  15. 79'Alaves:Aitor Mañas 1387 −8* for Denis Suárez 1783 −12*
  16. 87'Atletico Madrid:Cristian Romero 2419 +9* assist Alejandro Baena Rodríguez 2519 +6
  17. 90+2'Atletico Madrid:Johnny Cardoso 2306 +2*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-5-2Formations4-4-2
GSivera2038−17*
DN. Tenaglia2028−18*
DN. Valentini1859−8*
DJonny1981−17*
MAngel Pérez1795−8*
MPablo Ibáñez2006−15*
MAntonio Blanco2037−14*
MDenis Suárez1783−12*
MA. Rebbach1987−14*
FL. Boyé1955−13*
FToni Martínez1986−13*
CQuique Sánchez Flores1983−18*
GJ. Oblak2351+6
DMarcos Llorente2367+10*
DRobin Le Normand2387+3
DC. Romero2419+9*
DÁlex Grimaldo2355+12*
MG. Simeone2437−3*
MJ. Cardoso2306+2*
MKoke2257+13*
MPablo Barrios2379+5*
FA. Lookman2336−5*
FJ. David2294+5*
CD. Simeone2382+6*
Before kick-off: 16% · 23% · 61%(Alaves · draw · Atletico Madrid)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 1–2 had 10%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Alaves €2.8M, Atletico Madrid €22.8M.
  • Style contrast in pressing & duels (La Liga): Alaves ranked #2 of 20, Atletico Madrid #17.
  • All 11 of Alaves' expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Alaves

6th in La Liga · 11 pts from 7

  • 19 SepDAthletic Club 1924
  • 15 SepLValencia 1966
  • 12 SepLRacing Santander 1947
  • 6 SepWOsasuna 1931
  • 28 AugWVillarreal 1928

Atletico Madrid

2nd in La Liga · 16 pts from 7

  • 20 SepWReal Madrid 2353
  • 16 SepWOsasuna 2327
  • 13 SepWReal Sociedad 2344
  • 9 SepLLiverpool 2350
  • 5 SepLAthletic Club 2374

Season outlook

From the La Liga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Alaves11 /741.90%0%15%14th
Atletico Madrid16 /776.31%93%0%3rd
Alaves
Atletico Madrid

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: La Liga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Jonny
Jonny

Alaves · +1.7 (Good) · Elo 1999

Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente

Atletico Madrid · +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2357

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Enrique Sánchez Flores

Coach DNA: direct

Diego Pablo Simeone González

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Alaves: direct (how Enrique Sánchez Flores plays) · Atletico Madrid: possession-based (how Diego Pablo Simeone González plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.