Stars League · Regular Season - 5
Al Wakrah 3–2 Al-Gharafa
Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Saoud bin Abdulrahman Stadium, Wakla
Al WakrahTeam 1636Al-GharafaTeam 1696We gave Al Wakrah 37% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 37% · 29% · 34%(Al Wakrah · draw · Al-Gharafa)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 3–2 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Al Wakrah €711K, Al-Gharafa €1.4M.
- Home advantage made Al Wakrah the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Stars League): Al Wakrah ranked #9 of 11, Al-Gharafa #3.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al Wakrah
11th in Stars League · 2 pts from 4
- 10 SepDAl Shamal Qatar Stars League1768
- 4 SepLLusail City Qatar Stars League1765
- 27 AprWAl-Sailiya Qatar Stars League1702
- 3 AprWQatar SC Qatar Stars League1733
- 17 MarLAl-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League1744
Al-Gharafa
9th in Stars League · 4 pts from 4
- 15 SepLAl-Hilal Saudi FC AFC Champions League1755
- 11 SepDLusail City Qatar Stars League1767
- 5 SepLAl Sadd Qatar Stars League1758
- 27 AprDAl Shahaniya Qatar Stars League1757
- 18 MarLAl Ahli Doha Qatar Stars League1727
Season outlook
From the Stars League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Wakrah | 2 /4 | 11.6 | 0% | 6% | 38% | 10th |
| Al-Gharafa | 4 /4 | 13.3 | <1% | 13% | 23% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al Wakrah · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Good) · Elo 1872
Al-Gharafa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1837
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al Wakrah: balanced profile (how Jose Luis Sierra Pando plays) · Al-Gharafa: dribble-heavy (how Pedro Rui da Mota Vieira Martins plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.