Stars League · Regular Season - 5
Al Shamal 0–4 Al-Duhail SC
Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 14:45 UTC · Al-Shamal SC Stadium, Gray Shamal
Al ShamalTeam 1812Al-Duhail SCTeam 1872We gave Al Shamal 37% to win: Al-Duhail SC won.
Before kick-off (provisional): 37% · 29% · 34%(Al Shamal · draw · Al-Duhail SC)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–4 had 1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al Shamal €879K, Al-Duhail SC €1.6M.
- Home advantage made Al Shamal the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Stars League): Al Shamal ranked #2 of 11, Al-Duhail SC #11.
- All 11 of Al Shamal's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
- Al-Duhail SC were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al Shamal
3rd in Stars League · 8 pts from 4
- 10 SepDAl Wakrah Qatar Stars League1697
- 4 SepWAl Shahaniya Qatar Stars League1781
- 27 AprLAl Sadd Qatar Stars League1758
- 17 MarLAl-Duhail SC Qatar Stars League1796
- 12 MarWAl Wakrah Qatar Stars League1735
Al-Duhail SC
5th in Stars League · 6 pts from 4
- 12 SepDAl Shahaniya Qatar Stars League1847
- 5 SepDAl-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League1901
- 29 AugDAl-Arabi SC Qatar Stars League1889
- 27 AprWQatar SC Qatar Stars League1925
- 13 AprDAl-Ahli Jeddah AFC Champions League1951
Season outlook
From the Stars League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shamal | 8 /4 | 18.7 | 5% | 72% | <1% | 3rd |
| Al-Duhail SC | 6 /4 | 17.4 | 2% | 60% | 2% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al Shamal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1973
Al-Duhail SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1888
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al Shamal: balanced profile (how David Prats Racero plays) · Al-Duhail SC: possession-based · low-block (how Djamel Belmadi plays)