Stars League · Regular Season - 10
Al Sadd vs Lusail City
Fri 27 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Al Sadd host Lusail City on Fri 27 Nov 2026 (Stars League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Al Sadd 71%, draw 18%, Lusail City 11%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al Sadd €2.7M, Lusail City €332K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Stars League matchday 10: 363 points.
- Draw chance 18%, below the Stars League average of 24% this round.
- Lusail City's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Al Sadd goals first.
- 2–09%
- 2–19%
- 3–08%
- 3–18%
- 1–18%
- 1–06%
- Other scores52%
Team Elo: Al Sadd 1914 · Lusail City 1551
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al Sadd · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2016
Lusail City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1834
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al Sadd
3rd in Stars League · 18 pts from 9
- 8 NovLAl-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League1933
- 2 NovDAl-Ahli Jeddah AFC Champions League1959
- 30 OctWAl Shamal Qatar Stars League1937
- 26 OctDAl-Qadisiyah FC AFC Champions League1916
- 22 OctWAl Shahaniya Qatar Stars League1947
Lusail City
5th in Stars League · 12 pts from 9
- 8 NovWQatar SC Qatar Stars League1593
- 31 OctWAl-Sailiya Qatar Stars League1608
- 24 OctLAl-Duhail SC Qatar Stars League1588
- 17 OctDAl Shamal Qatar Stars League1597
- 10 OctLAl Shahaniya Qatar Stars League1609
Season outlook
From the Stars League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Sadd | 18 /9 | 21.9 | 6% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
| Lusail City | 12 /9 | 13.6 | 0% | 8% | 6% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –