Pro League · Regular Season - 10
Al-Nassr vs NEOM
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh
Al-Nassr host NEOM on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Al-Nassr 56%, draw 25%, NEOM 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Al-Nassr €9.1M, NEOM €2.2M.
- Al-Nassr's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Al-Nassr goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Al-Nassr 2185 · NEOM 1989
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Al-Nassr · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 2463
NEOM · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 2238
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Al-Nassr
3rd in Saudi Pro League · 19 pts from 8
- 12 OctWNeftchi AFC Champions League2216
- 9 OctWAl Diriyah Saudi Pro League2195
- 15 SepLAl Ain AFC Champions League2192
- 12 SepDAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Pro League2196
- 9 SepWAbha Saudi Pro League2173
NEOM
5th in Saudi Pro League · 16 pts from 9
- 17 OctLAl-Ettifaq Saudi Pro League1998
- 10 OctDAl-Hazm Saudi Pro League2042
- 13 SepWAl-Fateh Saudi Pro League1993
- 7 SepWAl-Hilal Saudi FC Saudi Pro League1920
- 3 SepWAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Pro League1904
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Nassr | 19 /8 | 69.4 | 5% | 86% | 0% | 3rd |
| NEOM | 16 /9 | 54.8 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Al-Nassr: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Angelos Postecoglou plays) · NEOM: balanced profile (how Christophe Galtier plays)